Obama May Lose
By platinum601
@platinum601 (276)
United States
October 20, 2008 11:53am CST
It's still anybody's game at this point even though Barrack Obama is leading by 10 points, those who are likely to vote for him are not registered at all. When the election date comes it all matters on who has the most registered voters and who will most likely actually take the time to show up at the polls.
2 people like this
5 responses
@ClarusVisum (2163)
• United States
20 Oct 08
"even though Barrack Obama is leading by 10 points, those who are likely to vote for him are not registered at all."
Huh? Most pollsters are sticking to LVs now because at this stage they tend to be more accurate, but the most recent poll of registered voters put Obama nine points in front:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr081014-2tb1.pdf&id=4121
"When the election date comes it all matters on who has the most registered voters"
Then Republicans should just concede, because there is no disputing the fact that there are currently more registered Democrats than Republicans.
"and who will most likely actually take the time to show up at the polls."
Every poll also shows a significant enthusiasm advantage on Obama's side. I'd consider how excited you are about your candidate to be a good indicator of how likely you'll be to show up to vote for them, don't you agree?
2 people like this
@4magoo (396)
•
20 Oct 08
I haven't seen people this enthusiastic about a candidate in c-o-o-n's age! Exuse me I have to keep up with the times " I mean in a moose's age." I know I would vote if I could but I can't. I have already voted. :-) I live in England and we are having an "Obama Pajama Party." Counting will go on all night for us as we are 5 hours ahead of Easter Standard Time. People will bring sleeping bags and ear plugs if they want to do any sleeping ....
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@Netsbridge (3253)
• United States
20 Oct 08
You are correct! Unless senator Barack H. Obama becomes (or pretends to be) a cold-blooded, war-loving pirate, team John "Wayne" MaCain may very well get into the White House! Why? Because the US government is a piracy government that only seems to thrive by intimidating and plundering, both domestically and internationally!
Noticed how some things are patterned after his ideas - such as troop withdrawal date from Iraq, the now common usage of "Change" by both major political parties. Very funny world indeed!
@ClarusVisum (2163)
• United States
20 Oct 08
1. If an employee steals money his employer, you wouldn't accuse the employer of theft. In the same way, when greedy employees tried to get paid for doing no work, as is the case when ACORN employees write up phony registrations, ACORN isn't the one at fault. They always fire the cheaters, always flag the phony registrations before sending them to election officials, and always offer to and do fully participate in any following investigations.
2. As has been proven many times over already, these phony registrations simply so NOT lead to phony votes. As the prosecuting attorney of the King County investigation clearly stated:
"While the actions of these individuals are extremely serious, I want to begin by assuring the public that no one has voted under these false registrations in any election.
Indeed, a joint federal and state investigation has determined that this scheme was not intended to permit illegal voting." -- http://www.metrokc.gov/proatty/news/2007/Voter%20Registration%20Statement.htm
Also, from FactCheck:
"There's been no evidence that the ACORN employees who submitted fraudulent forms have been paving the way for illegal voting. Rather, they're trying to get paid for doing no work."
Slate debunks this claim as well as the claim that voter fraud is a problem in general: http://www.slate.com/id/2202428/
And ABC News: http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6049529&page=1
And FactCheck again: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/acorn_accusations.html
So, why do you continue to peddle this widely-discredited smear that ACORN is on some kind of quest to interfere in elections?
3 people like this
@spalladino (17891)
• United States
20 Oct 08
Remember that the polls are not based on the number of registered voters but on what random respondents answer when questioned about who they plan to vote for. Considering the current mood in this country, some who are polled may be hesitant to admit supporting Obama. Look at the hits Colin Powell is taking. My husband and I voted in the primary with no problem so I'm confident that we won't have any problems on Election Day. 
@ClarusVisum (2163)
• United States
20 Oct 08
It's kind of funny--on top of the fact that the Bradley Effect has been thoroughly debunked, there seem to be one or more possible currently-unmeasured 'effects' that may actually HELP Obama. For example, something similar to what you mentioned, where Republicans may be reluctant to admit support for Obama lest they get tarred and feathered by other Republicans (I mean, if they'll boo their own CANDIDATE himself just for saying Obama's a decent guy, imagine how they'd treat some random Republican for ACTUALLY supporting Obama for President!).
Another possible factor is the primary cell phone users. These people are almost never polled, and all indicators are showing that this group leans several percent more Democrat than other demographics.
We'll see what happens; if Obama outperforms the polls, those two things are probably going to get the credit...or the blame, depending on who you ask.
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