Is the recession over?

United States
July 18, 2009 1:41pm CST
According to many on Wall Street the recession is over, and the economy will start to recover in by the fall of this year. If this is correct, then the Obama administration would have done the impossible: Bringing the economy out of a near depression in less than a year. Do you think the recession is over?
6 people like this
25 responses
@schulzie (4064)
• United States
19 Jul 09
I don't know. Personally from my personal situation the economy is not coming around yet. Both myself and my son are currently looking for jobs and we cannot find anything anywhere. It is not that we have not turned in applications, it is just that there are so many people out there looking for a job that there are not enough to go around. Have a nice day and happy myLotting!!
• United States
19 Jul 09
Sorry to hear you can't find a job, I know it is pretty hard out there right now. There are signs that the economy are turning around (my 401K went up 25% last quarter, BUT it is down 147% from it's high), but it will take time for US to see it. I know that there are very few employers out there hiring, and even the ones that are, they are not paying well, and are only hiring a few employees. Good luck
@BethTN81 (564)
• United States
19 Jul 09
It is was about over then people would not be losing jobs everyday. Gas prices would not be increasing, and the unemployment rate would not be s high. Wall Street is dreaming!
1 person likes this
• United States
19 Jul 09
Beth, jobs are a lagging indicator of a recovery. I did notice today that Gas prices were moving down, BUT they should be lower, and the oil companies have alot of explaining to do on this subject. I hope that Wall Street is right, and that this will be over soon.
@missybal (4492)
• United States
19 Jul 09
That should make Obama happy because the more the oil companies make the more money Obama will have for his policies. Demand is high for oil and the objection to drilling only drives up the cost of oil more. Most of the profits go to taxes and to the shareholders. Companies like Exxon provide great jobs with great benefits to their employees. Exxon's taxes it paid in 2008 was 2.5 times as much as its net profit paying $116 billion in taxes, $318 million per day in 2008.
@N4life (851)
• United States
19 Jul 09
I think we need to adjust to high gas prices. We are so used to flat consumer price indexes because the WalMarts's squeeze our farmers and Chineese factories tighter than a snare drum. We do need income to rise and Americans to be a little more responsible so that products can be bought for the prices they are really worth rather than what the big boxes demand.
@N4life (851)
• United States
18 Jul 09
Many here are hoping it is not so they can blame it on Obama. If it is, then they will say we would have came out sooner if it were not for Obama,though you probably already know this debater. I see that Obama's goal is not a short term fix that will just leave us in the same situation 5-10 years from now. This may not be the most popular approach but the economy needed change.
1 person likes this
@Taskr36 (13925)
• United States
18 Jul 09
All I'm hearing is that you love Obama and hate conservatives. As usual you faile to answer the question in this thread. "Is the recession over?"
@N4life (851)
• United States
18 Jul 09
Well sorry Taskr but I am not an economist and I don't feel qualified to really answer that question. As far as jobs, where I am, we have been in the tank for well over ten years now and no, I do not see that changing right now.
• United States
18 Jul 09
N, there is a very good reason for conservatives to derail the economy. Look at the last 30 years. Reagan had a few years of growth, but left the country with a record debt. Bush really didn't do much of anything, the economy was stagnet, and we still have high debt (but not record). Clinton had the longest stretch of economic growth in our nations history, and left the country with a surplus. Bush had a few years of good growth, then left the country in the worse economic crisis in decades, and left the country with another record debt. If Obama can pull this off, and bring the economy back around, you can pretty much kiss the Republican party good-bye. Who would ever trust them to run the country again?
1 person likes this
@Gesusdid (1681)
• United States
19 Jul 09
Haaaaaaaaaaaa its over !! please if that was the case i woulda had a job now lol
1 person likes this
• United States
19 Jul 09
Well, I hate to say it but jobs are usually a lagging indacator of a recovery. In the last two recessions the economy grew while job loses were still going up. Lets all hope that this recovery has already started. Good luck finding a job.
@robert19ph (4584)
• Philippines
19 Jul 09
hello thegreatdebater, Is what everybody is praying - the recession to be over. This way, we can have more chances to recover and start anew. Hope and pray that it's really over. For all the people who have done this, we're are so thankful and happy as well.
1 person likes this
• United States
19 Jul 09
Robert, I agree, I hope this is over too.
1 person likes this
@dlr297 (5418)
• United States
18 Jul 09
I think It is still going to get a whole lot worst, before it gets better, and i think that it is going to take a few years for it to start looking better.
1 person likes this
• United States
18 Jul 09
thanks for your comment.
• United States
19 Jul 09
No, two things here, when the stock market goes up for no reason it means higher interest rates are comming, second wall street is mostly made up of very large corperations which will plan on making mucho dollars with cap and trade, universal health care, and where he is sending our money via stimulous. In the end the small business owner which is basically all we got here anymore is left out.
1 person likes this
@siZidni (1860)
• Indonesia
19 Jul 09
that's a good news buddy. but i think here in indonesia the economic downturn will be longer than we thought since there were bombs in ritz and jw marriot recently. but we hope it will not give significance impact. but who knows what will come in the future.
1 person likes this
• Philippines
19 Jul 09
Well, i'd like to believe in that but unfortunately, it's still hasn't ended. Some have progressed but I still couldn't get a job, a good paying job.
1 person likes this
• Philippines
19 Jul 09
I think there's still a long road to recovery since they're more jobless now across the world. people should realize that working together and stop being greedy is the best way to beat recession. more businesses and entrepreneurs so that there will be more employment.
1 person likes this
@tundeemma (896)
• South Africa
19 Jul 09
definitely no, there are several economies of the world still entangled with severe economic problems, even in the United States, hundreds of jobs are still being loss on daily basis and it looks like the recession has just began to hit south africa especially with the loss in value of the currency and the ever increases prices of food and other commodities
@maharlikah (1045)
• Philippines
19 Jul 09
Nope, not yet. A friend just lost her job, their company had the cost cutting thingy. Then I told her, affected by recession? Late reaction though. But it's not.
1 person likes this
@tjades (3592)
• Jamaica
19 Jul 09
In my neck of the woods (which is outside the US) I must admit I dont think we got has much job cuts as I thought we would have. The bauxite and sugar cane industries have contributed to the most job loss. There was some troubling news yesterday that the petroleum company was about to shed staff. Now that is one company I feel sure would only be doing so for some ulterior motive and ought to be investigated. The trade unions are talking tough and I hope they donot let up on them. I really do not think we are close to the end to the end of the recession. I would certainly hope so but I do not feel it is so. I am praying that we do not have to borrow money from the IMF but things are bad enough here for the government to be holding talks with them. Many citizens here are apprehensive about getting stuck with the IMF again. I still think this recession is yet to do some more damage and I hate it.
1 person likes this
• India
19 Jul 09
yes, i think so... recession is getting over... atleast its getting a bit relieved now..
1 person likes this
@missybal (4492)
• United States
19 Jul 09
You got to be kidding me... The markets are going up and down like a yo yo. Unemployment is up, even when Obama pushed through his "stimulus" bill that he said would stop unemployment from going over 8%... ya right. Nothing Obama's done has helped the economy only create debt. Only the government has grown. Pouring money into the economy is not going to do any good (in fact only harm) in the long run if it doesn't create growth... and all Obama is doing is wasting money. Any improvement in the economy is happening despite the actions of Obama and Washington it is the hard work of the American people who fight for their lives to hold on to their businesses and dreams. Tell me what in that which Obama has done has actually stimulated true growth?
• United States
19 Jul 09
Missy, if you look at the facts you will see that the DOW is up over 2,000 points since the March 9 low. You will also see that the market has been up more than down for the last three months. The stimulus bill does not start to send money out untill the third quarter of this year, so you are correct that it hasn't done much, but that is because it hasn't even started. I have seen ACTUAL road programs that have been started because of the stimulus bill, and it employed one of my customers, so it even DIRECTLY effected my family. You would be surprised at what the money is going to, but you would actually have to look around instead of listening to people that feed you information. I remember people saying that the economy grew during the Clinton years despite Clinton, and if that makes you sleep better at night than fine. But, Obama didn't get us into this mess, and it will take him time to fix the mess that Bush left for the country. But, it will get done.
@missybal (4492)
• United States
20 Jul 09
If you knew the facts... last week it was down 600 points from that last week and much of that increase is a recovery from the points it drastically dropped after the election below the level it No Clinton contributed to this mess with the damage he did to the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, Creating to big to fail companies like Citigroup...Signing of NAFTA sending jobs overseas, among other things that I'm not going to get into because I haven't got the patience to go through and do the research to give you all the sources and places for you to get the education and facts you refuse to research yourself or even accept anyways. Not at all defending Bush but honestly get over it he's not the president anymore and neither is Clinton and yet "Oh Great Debater" you just can't debate without making Bush your focus. As for you knowing someone who got a little work on road construction how is that going to do much for the economy? Once the roads are fixed the job is done and your family member is out of a job again. As for my family who work in the aircraft industry three have lost their jobs because Obama's administration canceled their contracts with the government. My husband's base is so low on funding it's not funny. Road construction is short term pay that will end and will not create lasting employment. I use to think like you until I started really educating myself. But if you sleep well at night I guess the old saying is true... ignorance is bliss.
• United States
20 Jul 09
Missy, here are some REAL FACTS for you, From July 10 till today the DOW has gone up 701 points. Actually the DOW dropped before the election when the economy collapsed under George W. Bush. If you want to talk about Glass-Steagall Act, then you also have to give ALL the facts. The banking industry spent $200 million on house REPUBLICANS to get this act repelled, and they had the votes to overide a veto. So you can blame Clinton all you want, but we all know that the president doesn't make bills. I do agree that NAFTA was not a good idea, but democrats did a great job of stoping CAFTA durning the Bush years, this would have led to more lost jobs. "Not at all defending Bush but honestly get over it he's not the president anymore and neither is Clinton and yet "Oh Great Debater" you just can't debate without making Bush your focus." This is because he caused so many of the problems we have in our country today. How can you blame someone who has been in office for six months, for problems created created 5 -7 years ago? I am sure you remember when republicans blamed Bill Clinton for everything that happened during Bush's 1st term. Don't you remember the "Clinton Recession"? "As for you knowing someone who got a little work on road construction how is that going to do much for the economy? Once the roads are fixed the job is done and your family member is out of a job again." Missy, do I really have to explain how our economy works? See, when people have jobs (especially construction) they spend money on FOOD, SHELTER, and other products that provide jobs, and income to other companies. This is why republicans don't understand the manufacturing industry. They don't understand that when people have money they spend it on dinning out, new cars, new houses, and other products that they don't need. This creates jobs for people, and income for small businesses who are the largest employers in this country. "As for my family who work in the aircraft industry three have lost their jobs because Obama's administration canceled their contracts with the government." If we don't need the planes should we still build them? I have heard republicans blaming Obama for spending like a Bush, but here is a case where he saw a place to cut spending and did so. Isn't that his job? "Road construction is short term pay that will end and will not create lasting employment." Road construction leaves infrastructure that can be used by people, and companies to expand, and travel. With out a good infrastructure any area will lose jobs, because if you can't move your product then your company will be out of business soon. Unlike bailing out banks who created the mess that destroyed our economy. They can, and probably will, be right back here in the future. Missy, I really enjoy talking about the economy, I know alot about it, and I am sure that I can teach you much more than you can teach me. If you have anymore question about the economy than bring them on. I hate to tell you this, but the people that know agree with me, the idiots that want to bash Obama don't. If you look at the facts, and do some RESEARCH, you will quickly see that your possition is incorrect.
@Arkie69 (2156)
• United States
18 Jul 09
The recession is not over. In fact the real recession has yet to begin. What we have seen this far is an attempt by Mother Nature to correct some of our worst mistakes. Some will be corrected but others won't.The figures are being boosted to make it look like we are starting to come out of the recession but the price increases on every thing say the exact opposite. We are in the early stages of run-away- inflation and it is picking up speed very quickly. The increase in prices will shut down the sales of consumer goods even more than it is now. This will cost a lot more jobs and mean a lot more people with a lot less money to spend. That will cost even more jobs and put us even deeper into the recession. The only thing that will bring us out of this recession is a total crash of our economy. We have been "Stimulating" the economy much too long. These "little" crashes are just adjustments and any time you prevent one you just make the next one even worse. Our economy has simply reached a point where it is going to crash no matter what we do. All Obama has done so far is make the effects of a crash even worse than what they had to be. Obama is just the man to destroy the United States as we have known it. Art
• United States
19 Jul 09
Arkie, inflation isn't a bad thing, but like you said run away inflation can be a big problem. When inflation goes up, profits go up, corporations have more money to hire, or expand, and the economy grows. But, run away inflation makes products to expensive, so people buy less, and it destroys the economy (last year was a perfect example of this, when oil reach $147 a barrel, and Bush did NOTHING, people chose between gas and everything else). I don't agree with your assesment of Obama, THE MAN HAS BEEN IN OFFICE FOR 6 MONTHS. It took George W. Bush 8 years to destroy the economy (and YES he did destroy the economy, at every turn he could have stopped what we are going through now, but chose not to), it is going to take more than 6 months fix the problem that Bush created. I think that Obama will be more open to fixing problems than Bush was. Bush was great at finding problems, but he never fixed them, even when his party controlled the entire government. He was also great at creating huge problems, and making them larger by not doing his job (when you are sitting on the largest stockpile of oil in the world, and oil reaches $147 a barrel, and you do NOTHING AT ALL to releave the problem, then you ARE THE PROBLEM). I understand what you are saying Art, but the signs of a double dip recession just aren't there, and yes you are correct that we head back into a recession in the coming years, but we also may not.
@Arkie69 (2156)
• United States
19 Jul 09
I mostly agree with your post but inflation in any form is not good for the economy. Sure it increases profits for producers but but it also increases prices for consumers. It also creates a gap between the cost of living and the consumer's income. These "little" crashes I spoke of are simply Natural adjustments to get wages and the cost of living back more in line. This gap gets a little too wide consumption slows, sales drop and prices should come down. I say "should" but they don't and this is where the government is not doing their job. Prices should be regulated by the government. The producers are free to just increase their prices to make up for the less sales. This is causing us some very serious problems. The only real value any consumer goods have is to be determined on how long and how well it will serve man's needs. Any producer that wishes to increase their profits should be forced by laws to either find a cheaper way to produce their goods or produce a better quality item that will server man's needs longer and better. This is not the way our economy is operating and it is causing us some very serious problems. Obama like everyone else that has come down the pike for many years is trying to solve our problems the same way he mows his lawn. When you go out and mow your lawn all your are doing is clipping the top of the grass off and leaving the root in the ground to grow back to me mowed again later. This works good for a lawn but if you want to kill the grass so it doesn't grow back you dig deep and kill out the roots of the grass. Our Government is simply clipping at the top of our problems and leaving the root of then to grown back to be dealt with again later. They need to dig deep and kill out the very root of our problems so they don't grow back. There is a lot of areas they could do this if they just would and completely eliminate a lot of our problems. Art
@Taskr36 (13925)
• United States
18 Jul 09
Who are these "many on Wall Street" you speak of? The recession is clearly not over. People are still losing their jobs. Homes are still getting foreclosed. Thsi stimulus was supposed to help teachers keep their jobs yet I personally know three teachers who just lost their jobs. In Miami all county employees are getting a 5% paycut with all merit increases frozen. They are also laying off 1700 county employees. No, this recession is not over and I see absolutely nothing that could possibly indicate that.
• United States
18 Jul 09
Taskr, well to start off with Nouriel Roubini made the statement on Thursday (I know you have no clue who this is, but he is one of the smartest men in the finacial world, and his words moved the market). Along with your friends at Forbes, your other friends at The Wall Street Journal (both far right wing news organizations). ECRI which has called the end of the last two recessions, and has tracked the US economy for decades. If you would like I can go on Taskr, this is pretty easy stuff to find on the internet. I do see signs of the economy coming back, all of my paving customers are so busy they don't have time to look for work because they are busy working (not common around here). I have fifteen customers that recently had their lots paved, and two other that spend tens of thousands pouring cement drives. There are road projects springing up all over the area up here, and that is part of the stimulas. I understand that you may be seeing different things down there, but up here it is starting look up.
1 person likes this
@iriscot (1290)
• United States
19 Jul 09
A steel plant that is located nearby called their workers back to work on the 1st day of July. The plant closed down and the workers were without a paycheck back in September or October. They have started to work on a four lane highway that has been needed for years, with stimulus money, that is putting a lot of construction and labor personel back to work, as there will have to be several "fly overs" and bridges built in a 15 mile stretch before the concrete can be poured for the new highway, so there is a lot of jobs to be had in the short future. The local government in my community has received stimulus money to help build a new sewer plant that is badly needed. The recession may not be over, but those are good signs of recovery that I can see in our local area. Those against the stimulus can harp all they want but it is putting people back to work and when heavy industry such as a steel plant starts up again after being shut down during the last administrations' reign, it is progress and a sign that things will turn around if the conservatives would just co-operate a little instead of trying to kill every positive bill that is brought forward by the present administration.
@suspenseful (40316)
• Canada
19 Jul 09
It is not over. In fact, it is getting worse. I live in Canada, not affected by the recession as bad as the States, but when I was grocery shopping, the price of many of the items we usually buy have gone up, some as much as doubled and that also included the healthy stuff. I would hate to see what the Americans are going through. Obama and his minions have put Americans in debt, the price of gas and oil have gone up in a mad dash to make America into a socialist country. I see a depression in the near future.
• United States
19 Jul 09
Suspenseful, sorry to hear about life up north, I really enjoy going to Canada, everyone seams so nice up there. As a matter of fact I think I will be in Windsor in two weeks. Price of some products have gone up, while prices on other have gone down, I paid $1.69 for milk a few days ago, and I paidl $2.16 this morning for gas. The United States had a budget surplus in 2001, in 2008 we had the highest debt in our nations history. Obama wasn't president in 2008. So blaming Obama for this is not factually correct, George W. Bush created our debt problems. It is Obama's job to fix the mess that Bush created, and it isn't going to be very easy. Gas has actually gone down for the last three weeks, and oil is $80 less than last year at this time, so it is getting better. I haven't seen an economics predict a depression since the first of the year, and these are guys that know alot more about the economy than you and me combined.
@xfahctor (14131)
• Lancaster, New Hampshire
19 Jul 09
Far from it my friend, far from it. As much as i would love to see the light at the end of this tunnel, I think what we are actualy seeing is the oncomming freight train. I'm predicting at least another 1 to 2 percent rise in unemployment over the next 6 to 9 months, another seemingly encouraging rally in the markets before another plunge (3 or 4 hundred points) with a period of deflation followed by a seemingly sudden period of heavy inflation.
• United States
19 Jul 09
X, it wouldn't surprise me to see unemployment go up 1 - 3% in the next few months. But, you have to remember that employment is a lagging indicator, and the stock market is a forward indicator. The last two recessions have ended while unemployment was still on the rise. We have heard some rumors of price increases on our oil end the last few weeks, but nothing concrete, so I am not sure on the inflation. I don't really see a deflation option out there, but that is just me. I do see inflation going up, but that isn't always a bad thing, some inflation is good, but to much could hurt the coutnry.
@grammasnook (1877)
• United States
19 Jul 09
My honest view and hopes, the recession actually began in Dec of 2007 the public was not told about what was going on till Dec of 2008. Some people will tell you it will get worse before it gets better. Mow what if this was the worse time for the recession? As far as foreclosures I think that many people have lost their homes because of job loss. But I also believe that many others are jumping on the wagon and using the economy as a way to get rid of the house that they owe more than what it is worth.
• United States
19 Jul 09
Gramm, economist knew we were in a recession in late 2007 but the White House didn't tell anyone. The Grand Central Station of Treasury Secretaries may have been the reason that the Bush administration was asleep at the wheel. But, that doesn't matter. I see more foreclosures in the future, they say that in 2010 30% of Adujustable rate mortgages come up, and it could lead to another huge number. I personally think that the people that got us into this mess, can't get us out of it. I think that the government needs to step up and force Bank of American, and the other mortgage companies to work on these mortgages, and get them in-line. I agree that job loss was one factor, but the high price of oil last year hurt this country worse than any war, recession, or maybe even depression this country has ever seen. I guess Clinton was right about keeping oil low, and the economy will grow.