Drill here, drill now, not necessarily pay less

@gewcew23 (8007)
United States
May 12, 2011 1:24pm CST
There are some that view every problem that the human species suffers from can be solved with a simple solution. We can look no farther than the drill here, drill now bumper sticker crowd. If you were to inquirer on how we should handle the ever increasing cost of fuel this particular crowd's answer could be summed up to the point of drill here, drill now. The problem is they make the assumption that drilling new oil wells would lower the cost that you pay at the pump. It is an assumption that has two problems which I will address right now. Problem 1) The owner(s) of these new oil wells would not have an incentive to lower the price of crude oil. Actually they would wish that the price of crude would go up to accelerate the recruitment of their investment that funded the drilling operations. Drilling a new well is expensive and only becomes more expensive when the drillers have to drill deeper, in colder areas, or offshore. To fund new drilling operations, drilling companies will seek investors. These investor will only invest if they believe that they will see a return on their money. These returns are fueled by the price of crude oil. Higher the price of crude oil, quicker their investment will be reimbursed plus profit for their effort. So here is my question what would the incentive be to drill a new oil well just to have the price of crude drop? Problem 2) No one drives off of crude oil. Lets just be honest for a minute here, the only reason why most people even care what crude oil cost is because the price of crude affects the price that you pay at the pump. Crude oil though must be refined, and as far as I am aware refineries are running at top capacity. I haven't come apart any refineries handing out press releases that state that their refineries are running low on oil to refine. So if your solution was to drill here, drill now, you would need to build here, build now, as to building new refineries. Though I am sure the drill here, drill now crowd would not have any problem with building new refineries, these new refineries would come with the same problems as new drilling operations. Building a new refinery would cost large sum of money, money which would be funded by investor who would be seeking a return on their investment asap. These investor would have not incentive to fund the building of a new refinery any more than the investors of the new oil drill operations, if their actions resulted in the dropping of the price of crude/pump fuel. So here is my question what would the incentive be to build new refineries just to have the price of fuel drop?
1 person likes this
6 responses
@sierras236 (2739)
• United States
12 May 11
What you are talking about is the initial investment costs. This is assuming that the site hasn't been surveyed, that a new platform would have to built rather than simply moved into a new location, and that the company would seek out investors rather than sinking their own money into the project. You are assuming incorrectly that these direct costs would directly relate to exactly how much a company charges at the pump. If what you said were an absolutely true statement, then you would find drastically different prices (more than a couple of cents difference) between gas stations simply because they are supplied by different oil companies and each would have different cost projections. Since it is a global resource, no single country/company sets the price. The price of oil is determined by two things, supply and demand and speculators. While no one is sure how much of an influence speculators have on oil, what they do is predict with money whether prices go up or down in the FUTURE. They do this by looking at the global amount of supply (Production situations in countries such as Libya, Iran, Saudi Arab, etc.) and the amount countries are demanding (China, the US, Canada, etc.) If the scale slides to more supply, prices drop. If the scale slides to higher demand, prices go up. This is of course a very simplistic explanation of how oil prices work. Now consider this. A lot of what your are discussing is creating jobs. The company would need people to survey the site, figure out how to drill, how deep to drill, how the platform should be set-up, etc. Then the company would hire new people to build the platform, work on the platform and maintenance the platform. Additional new jobs would be added if you throw in a refinery. Obviously, this would create more long term jobs. We do need more factories to refine oil. It doesn't get mentioned because it isn't a controversial decisive political issue. The only issue here is the Environmentalists but then they are against practically everything. Last but not least and this is the most important piece of information to understand. The company assumes the risk. Therefore, they should reap the benefits. This the ultimate test for an oil company. Can they sustain the big initial costs of doing business?
1 person likes this
@gewcew23 (8007)
• United States
12 May 11
Yes I am talking about initial investments, which those initial investments are fuel by a desire to turn a profit based on current fuel prices. At no point did you dispel my point that the investor, whether internal or external, needs the current price of fuel to warrant spending capital to drill or to build. To your point about the price at the pump being pretty much level, I am not saying that drilling or building would increase the price that you pay, but what I am saying is that it would not decrease it. I will stand by what I said those well that you want drilled need to be funded by someone, and those that would fund the drilling operation would do it solely because they see profits to be made based on presents and future price of crude. So that supply that you want to increase to meet demand would be funded by present and future crude prices. As to creating jobs, yes they would create jobs, but if the goal to create jobs then we would do a lot of things differently. Take for instance making a plant more efficient. Efficiency sometime cost jobs.
• United States
12 May 11
You are stating two obvious points but missing the bigger picture. Individually, each company has to spend money to make money. The second is that the company wants to make profits. The start-up costs are just higher for an oil company than say an internet company that sells pickles. The big picture is that the company itself does not set the price for a barrel of oil. It costs the company a certain amount to produce it. But, the company does not get to determine the end price of the gas because it is a global commodity. Which means that yes, investors hope that prices stay high so they can make a profit. But, they can't set the price which would guarantee that they would make profits. It is a balancing act that every business plays. They hope to make enough money to make a profit. Yet, they want to keep the price low enough that people will demand it. Anytime a market gets flooded with something, the price drops dramatically. You can compare it to seasonal vegetables. When they are out of season, it costs more to obtain them. But when in season, you see a dramatic price difference because they are so readily available.
1 person likes this
@ParaTed2k (22940)
• Sheboygan, Wisconsin
12 May 11
Why is it that EVERY time OPEC nations increase production, the price of gasoline comes down, but people on the left insist that US oil is somehow different? It's called supply and demand.
@gewcew23 (8007)
• United States
12 May 11
Cause those wells have already been drilled, and the refiners that built them had already been built. Your talking apples and I am talking oranges.
@ParaTed2k (22940)
• Sheboygan, Wisconsin
12 May 11
No, I'm talking oil and oil. As we speak, there are oil industry workers sitting around in Louisiana who would be working, if it weren't for Obama's illegal and unconstitutional moratorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. They could be working tomorrow. There are oil wells that have been capped, but could still be productive, they could be producing oil in a matter of weeks. This is oil that could be produced, but is NOT in the market. So don't talk to anyone about the price of gas when YOU are part of the problem.
1 person likes this
@gewcew23 (8007)
• United States
12 May 11
I am part the problem, wow, you really don't now how to have a rational conversation. Not to long ago you told me to crawl into a hole and die, and now I am the reason for the price of gas, all because I wrote a mylot piece on why drilling here drilling now will not lower the price of gas.
@xfahctor (14118)
• Lancaster, New Hampshire
15 May 11
Well, I see enough people have corrected your flawed economics so I'll just skip that part. However, I will point out something else that is just as important..the perception of supply. The last time oil prices were really high, almost the minute an announcement was made that more areas were going to be opened up to drilling, the price of oil fell through the floor with gas prices almost right on it's heals. So this whole notion that it would take years to effect the price of gas is just a myth and does not reconcile with what was observed. Another strange contradiction I notice is that last time we had gas and oil prices this high...people were screaming for the president's (Bush) head. Funny, don't see those same people screaming for Obama's head over it. Where'd ya all go?
@dawnald (85135)
• Shingle Springs, California
12 May 11
yes, let's drill more and build more refineries now, and wait until it's all gone to develop other energy sources!
@andy77e (5156)
• United States
15 May 11
Economics fail. Problem one: The owners of the wells have absolutely no ability to determine the price of the oil they sell. I have a 1996 automobile. I own the automobile. I determine the price of the automobile I sell. So... I want a million dollars for my 96 car with 100 thousand miles on it. Strangely... no one is buying my car. Buyers determine the price of the car, by how much they are willing to pay for it. Similarly, if I drill a well in my backyard, and then just determine I'm not selling my oil unless I get $200 a barrel, well I'll just go broke. Why? Wells cost money to run. But no one is going to pay me $200 a barrel, when oil is down to $99 a barrel on the market. Here's the bottom line. Whether you like it or not, oil prices are caused by the economics of 'supply and demand' on the world oil market. Increase that supply of oil, will have a price lowering effect on the market. It's a fundamental of economics that will not change, and always works. So yes, more supply will lower prices. Further, your idea that investors should not want to invest because in doing so, they will lower the cost of oil, and then lower their profits.... just doesn't fit with reality. By that logic, no new wells should ever be created anywhere in the world. Yet new wells are being built every day. So, lets move on from this wacky backwards logic. If your screwball view was true, then the biggest supporters of the off-shore drilling ban, should have been the companies themselves... right? We're preventing new wells that will supply oil and lower the price, thus helping the companies make more money from oil. Exxon should be protesting the lifting of the off-shore drilling ban, as we speak. *sigh* Do you see how nutty that idea is? Problem with problem 2: The price of fuel is irrelevant to profitability of refineries. Refinery operations run on a flat fee. Somewhere around 5ยข per gallon refined. Whether the price is $1 or $4 per gallon, the refinery makes the same profit generally. Again the primary cost in gasoline, is the oil. Therefore more oil, more supply, equals lower price, equals lower gasoline costs. Further, refineries are running at top capacity. But that's actually irrelevant. They are, but not necessarily for us. Lets say that regular unleaded is maxed out. The depots are full. The supply lines are maxed. There is no need for anymore regular unleaded gas to be made. Is the owner of the refinery just going to close down, and call it a month or whatever? No. He's going to find a customer who needs something refined. A little known fact is that the US is the refinery hub of the world. Take Venezuela for example. A large chunk of of South America's oil production come from Venezuela. But did you know that Venezuela has very little refining capacity? Venezuela, to this day, ships all their oil for domestic use, to US based refineries, where it is refined into gasoline, and then ships it back to Venezuela for retail sale. Equally Mexico, and Brazil, and even India and China, all send oil to the US to be refined, and shipped back in retail petro products, like gasoline. So, yes all refineries are running at maximum capacity at all times. But no, that doesn't mean if need more gasoline, that we don't have the refinery capacity for it. We'd simply refine a little less for other countries, and refine a little more for ourselves. Equally, we could just as easily send some oil to refineries in Canada and Mexico, or even Europe, have it refined there, and brought here. It's a world market. We can have it done here, or there. Doesn't matter. Now one sad thing is that because of all the eco-idiots in our government, and all the regulations that prevent the building of new refineries... the lack of more refineries has caused the building of new refineries in areas that we used to service. Companies in China, Brazil, and India, are building oil refineries in Cuba, Venezuela, Mexico, and throughout all of south-east Asia. Now that doesn't mean we're going to lose money. But what it does mean is future potential money we could have made if we had built more refineries, we will of course not get. Thanks a bunch eco-dorks. Of course we instead complain that big oil companies like Exxon and Shell, are spending their capital in other countries instead of the US. Well duh. When you prevent economic growth, companies tend to build somewhere else. But back to your post. In both cases, basic economics shows that given the ability to produce more oil, and refine more oil, companies will do so.
@edb225112 (124)
• United States
13 May 11
You really need to study some economics. The price of everything is set by supply and demand. The more supply, the lower the price. If I have three thousand gallons of oil, and there is only a demand for two thousand gallons, I either have to wait until the two thousand gallons are used before I can sell the other thousand gallons or I can lower the price, save the storage costs and be ready for the next three thousand gallons to be pumped up. If you have a lower price of the crude, refining it is cheaper so the cost goes down. Why do you assume that building a refinery would change the cost of the fuel? All the costs of production is passed on to the consumer! What is the difference between building a new refinery and spending money updating and maintaining the old ones? You conplain about the simple thinking of the drill here, drill now crowd. Your own arguement has the complexity of noodle.