The polls in Florida point to a very close contest between Mitt Romney and John McCain. As of Monday's polling used here (there will be new final polls available Tuesday morning) Romney has a small lead based on our trend estimators (both standard and sensitive). But that lead is so small that a "dead heat" is probably still a good characterization of the race.As we've seen in several previous states, the final vote has often broken strongly in favor of the winner with little going to the...