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Riehle: Hierarchical Vote Analysis email this discussion to a friend?

Pollster (1) 
3 months ago

Today's Guest Pollster article comes from Thomas Riehle, a Partner of RT Strategies. If it were a different month on the calendar - say, October - the Obama campaign might be concerned to see that the groups most likely to be truly undecided, not leaning even a little toward Obama or McCain, comprise some voters he must be counting on:Women (21% undecided), women ages 40-64 (24%), women ages 65 and older (25%), women with less than a 4-year college degree (24%), and Registered voters in...

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The Enthusiasm Gap from 2004

Kathy Frankovic, the director of surveys for CBS News, devotes her column this week to a subject you have been reading a lot about lately, the "enthusiasm gap" between supporters of Barack Obama and...

Started in Pollster • 1 month ago • 0 responses
Tags: the 2008 race

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Omero: The Right Words for Your Numbers

[Margie Omero is President of Momentum Analysis, a Democratic polling firm based in Washington, DC.]Wednesday, Politico told the story of a single poll number getting mistakenly pushed around...

Started in Pollster • 2 months ago • 0 responses
Tags: the 2008 race

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Moore: USA Today's Cluster Analysis of Voters - How Useful?

Today's Guest Pollster article comes from David W. Moore, a senior fellow with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a former vice president and senior editor with the Gallup...

Started in Pollster • 2 months ago • 0 responses
Tags: the 2008 race

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A "Flaw" in the Iowa Poll?

Earlier today, commenter "axt113" noticed what he or she described as a "flaw" in the just released Iowa poll from SurveyUSA: "It has McCain winning the AA vote 55% to 45." I was distracted and...

Started in Pollster • 3 months ago • 0 responses
Tags: sampling error, the 2008 race