|  China moves to 4th in GDP pack
China set to leap over Britain to 4th in world GDP rankings despite suspected undercounting.
December 13, 2005: 8:34 AM EST
BEIJING (Reuters) - China is likely to declare itself the world's fourth largest economy next week, having leapfrogged Italy, France and Britain, helped by a likely huge revision of its gross domestic product figures.
Economists say the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is due to release part of the results of its first national economic census on Dec. 20, is likely to put a much bigger figure on the size of China's services sector.
The South China Morning Post, citing unnamed economists, reported on Tuesday that the agency would probably revise GDP by as much as $300 billion, or about 20 percent of 2004 output.
A revision of that magnitude could catapult China from the world's seventh-largest economy into fourth spot, now occupied by Britain.
Jim O'Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs in London, said China could attain that status even without such a big revision based on growth rates and currency changes in 2005.
Not only has China grown far more quickly than Italy, France and Britain this year, but the yuan has risen about 2.5 percent against the dollar, further boosting its output when measured in dollars. The euro and sterling, by contrast, have fallen. "China could squeak in ahead of Britain even without a revision," O'Neill said. "It just goes to show how much it's contributing to the world economy."
Economists said an upward revision of 20 percent, as reported by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, would be in line with their own estimates -- or could even be too modest.
Chen Xingdong, chief China economist for BNP Paribas Peregrine in Beijing, said he would not be surprised if the NBS revised up its estimate of China's GDP, which totalled $1.65 trillion in 2004, by 15 percent to 20 percent.
China's number-crunchers have failed to capture the boom in small and medium-sized industrial enterprises, Chen said. "We always argue that it has been largely underestimated for a long, long time," he said. "Even a number like 15 percent is not that large for us."
Understated
Dong Tao, chief economist for non-Japan Asia at Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Ltd., said China's GDP would still be understated even if it was revised up by $300 billion. "There's a mive under-reporting of GDP in the service sector," Tao said.
He cited the relatively low quality of data collection in China as one reason for that. Economists have long pointed to shortcomings in China's statistics, due to a central planning legacy that put priority on collecting data on the production of physical goods from state-owned enterprises.
Tao said another reason was that many service enterprises fall through the statisticians' net because they fail to report income for tax reasons. "Just take a walk into any restaurant in Shenzhen or Beijing. If you buy a meal without asking for the receipt, for tax reasons these things will not be in China's GDP," he said.
Still, Tao said that, on CSFB's calculation, China would probably need another year before it could catch up with Britain, whose GDP totalled $2.14 trillion in 2004, according to the World Bank.
France came fifth in the World Bank's rankings, with 2004 GDP of $2.00 trillion, and Italy sixth, with output of $1.67 trillion. The United States, followed by Japan and Germany, topped the list.
2005-12-14 08:59 AM #1
coolmax
Super Member
UID 32116
Digest Posts 7
Credits 9199
Posts 9077
Registered 2004-6-30
Status Online but LAO BAI XING, the mes, didn't get much benefit from this increase
Soaring prices in housing, education, and medical care...are torturing the lower cla ss, including farmers and low-income citizens...
In order to purchase a 2-bedroom apartment in Shanghai, you have to work your a ss off all day long, and all year around, which is still not enough. You have to work hard all your life to pay the loans...which may add up to one million RMB yuan, 50 times of the annual income of an average citizen in Shanghai. You're exploited by the real estate company, whose accomplices are banks and local authorities... They're robbers.
The great divide between the rich and the poor, may defeat China within itself one day.
If the great writer LU XUN was still alive today, unsurprisingly, you would find him in a jail, if he refuses to go with the stream...[ Last edited by coolmax at 2005-12-14 09:17 PM]
2005-12-14 08:59 PM #2
markwu
Junior Member
UID 27361
Digest Posts 0
Credits 1555
Posts 1532
Registered 2004-4-21
Status Offline an important post
but that's often a much neglected side of open market economics, one of Man's greatest and yet saddest inventions.
While efficient for systems and market, free enterprise unless 'checked' by a proper set of regulations sensitive to its final effects on the pursestrings of the common citizen on the street and rural paths will generate much income disparities and may even bring the very results that it intends to remove.
Yet there are some ways out - one, microfinancing in the rural sector by using pooled pension funds as collateral for bank loans; two, double-jobbing where people can take on a second income job after they've finished work; three, some form of controlled investment, like provident funds and REITs, which will provide for inflation-buffering earnings for contributors, and, four, cooperatives working to ma ss purchase to reduce costs.
However, these methods are only as good as strict implementation based on principles of integrity and honesty. The black side of human nature must not encroach on their programmes and powers must not be abused for dishonest personal gains at the expense of the projects, and thus the people.
There are many lessons from the outside world where these have worked, yet even more where they have failed. It is best that experts re-study them, and perhaps propose new and more ingenious projects, which can help to reduce the income gaps, provide fiscal relief for the poor and balkanised, and, just as importantly, create more income opportunities for individuals.
The new problem for this century is urban poverty. To be surrounded by wealth, yet to be poor is a sad deal for modernization.
Be careful.
2005-12-15 08:54 AM #3
greendragon
Super Member
UID 53124
Digest Posts 0
Credits 6420
Posts 6427
Registered 2005-1-13
Status Offline Reply #2 coolmax's post
If prices of real estate goes "too high", then use regulations, use land sales, use land zone regulations to help the bottom 50% of the populace...who would have lower incomes.
Example, in Hong Kong, the have "council housing"in Malaysia, we have "low cost housing"...all priced at Rmb50,000 to Rmb120,000 per unit!
Just don't copy Singapore gangstar methods!cheerios!fm
Cheeky Game Master
Lord of the code
2005-12-15 02:21 PM #4
freeman (freeman)
Primary Member
UID 10197
Digest Posts 1
Credits 281
Posts 260
Registered 2003-8-19
Status Offline natural of the income gap, me think
It's market economy, and the growing gap between the enterprenuers and farmers, urban ordinary workers (like me) is understandable, and acceptable. Because it is the natural result of the market-economy. If one wants to live better, he/she has to work hard, sleep less, and use more of his/her brains, right?And with the industrial, brain-endowed, and enterprenous fellows become rich first, they will set an example for others: to work hard, to borrow a small loan from the bank, and begin a business.
And this is typical capitalism, and I like it. That is exactly what Mr Deng Xiaoping, the reform architect, instructed us to do.
Haven't the past 27 years proved his success?
2005-12-16 11:53 AM #5
zn_loogen (zn_loogen)
Newcomer
UID 10294
Digest Posts 0
Credits 47
Posts 47
Registered 2003-8-20
Status Offline to freeman
You got the right point when it comes to natrual rules. Whenever there are always poor man and rich man.
But as a goverment, which called itself socialistic, should bring out some policies to restrain the overwhelming housing price, which is totally unbearble to average chinese citizen. Those so called brain-endowed, hard-working capitalists by now have earned enough money. IT is time to think about majority of chinese people, to take care of their thoughts, to hear their opinion.
2005-12-23 07:24 PM #6
theshepherd (theshepherd)
Primary Member
UID 25423
Digest Posts 0
Credits 458
Posts 457
Registered 2004-3-24
Status Offline Reply #1 alee_dodo's post
Latest statistics indicate China is at the sixth place, just overtaking Italy.
It is highly possible that China will overtake France to rank the fifth when the yearly figures for 2005 are announced early next year.
Anyway, China is progressing, although there is still great number of poor people.
2005-12-23 07:35 PM #7
cestmoi (cestmoi)
Junior Member
UID 35458
Digest Posts 1
Credits 1145
Posts 1141
Registered 2004-8-15
Status Offline The POINT is...
China has an internal demand for goods and services which need to be satisfied.
In other words, the discretionary spending power of the Chinese people,of the new "middle cla ss", is rising and is measurable to the tune of US$300billion. This means the western complain about the Chinese economy being totally export driven and is a bubble is groundless. It is good news for China, it is good news for the West, it is good news for the world.
This also means that China is creating an internal circular demand and will, soon
Related Resources: pay day loan, personal care, new inventions
|
