|  Nigeria, the most populous black nation has been ranked as an unstable market in a global study conducted by US-based research and consulting firm-Eurasia group.The Eurosia group’s global political Riosk Index,a political stability ranking for 24 emerging markets,awarded Nigeria a composite score of 50 and ranked her 23rd.The ranking showed Nigeria to be ahead of only Pakistan,South Africa seems to have the best result as it comfortably sit at the 10th position immediately after China.Nigeria is only ahead of Pakistan in the ranking,Pakistan is at the top bottom with composite score of 49 among 24 nations.
But in spite of Nigeria’s lowest ranking,Eurasia group,in a statement by one of its analyst-Ross Schaap, admitted that Nigeria’s score improved over lasy year’s.It observed that in contrast to Ukraine and Turkey,Nigeria’s score showed that the country had made some progress.
Specifically,the report acknowledged recent efforts aimed at stabilizing the polity were commendable.
“despite a number of negative factors,including a questionable electoral process,post-election turmoil caused by the opposition’s intense resistance and persistent violence in the oil-rich Niger-Delta,in the Southern part of Nigeria,Nigeria’s stability outlook is actually positive concluded Ross Schaap.
The global stability index,which is prepared for potential and actual foreign investors in emerging markets,is produced by Euroasia group and distributed in partnership with Citi Private Bank.The index is based on indicators in four equally weighted categories:government,society,security,and economy .These categories are combined into single country score on a scale,from zero to 100.The higher the score,the more stable the country.”
Leading the pack of the most stable countries is Hungary with a composite score of 78;followed by South Korea with a score of 76;Poland 73;Bulgaria with 71.With the exception of Venezuela and Colombia,the report stated that Latin American emerging markets were on the whole fairly stable.Brazil and Mexico scored 66,followed by Argentina with 65.But Venezuela ranked among the backbenchers with a score of 50.Analysts attributed Venezuela’s unimpressive performance to the Venezuelan’s president-Hugo Chavez’s nationalistic policies considered unfriendly and frightening by foreign investors.”The june index highlights several significant political developments with the key information found in government variable,” Schapp said.
With 66 points,Turkey was ranked among the stable emerging markets.This was attributed to recent parliamentary elections,which analysts observed ,had brought some measure of political stability after months of crisis.Although the Islamist-rooted,pro-business ruling AK party won in the elections,the party is yet to come to terms on how to elect a president.The report observed that the presidential election was the harbinger of recent turmoil in that country.
“despite the fact that Turkey is moving towards a more democratic state,the election also set the stage for maneuvering and possible confrontation over the stalled selection of the new Turkish head of state,” another analyst ,Wplfango Piccoli,said.
He further warned that reaching a consensus on the presidential candidate was possible,but was likely to require time and could cause political trouble.
Pakistanis the most unstable with a composite score of 46. General Pervez Musharaf,who assumed power in a bloodless coup in 1999,rules the country.Analysts at Euroasia observed that Musharaf’s crackdown against extremists was unlikely to ease political pressure on his government .”the heavy hand is displayed in the overnment’s dealing with radicals occupying the Las Masjid{red mosque}and its renewed commitment to find extremism ,while improving Musharaf’s standing with moderate secularists,triggered a blacklash from religious conservatives,” they noted.
Ironically ,despite this highly tense political risk,the report said,”Pakistan is attracting the attention of some equity strategists who see its stock market as a bargain compared to regional peers.”
Apart from Nigeria,other African countries that appeared on the index were South Africa{9th},Algeria{13th},and Egypt{15th}
Eurasia group is the world’s leading global political risk advisory and consultancy firm.It covers political,social,security and economic development worldwide.Its coverage is organized into four geographic zones –Asia,Europe,Latin America and Africa
The research of the Eurasia group providesan early warning system which helps anticipate critical trends and provides a measure for country capacity to withstand political,economic,security,and social shocks.
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