Polls : Obama hits 50%; but luck may smile this week for McCain  | | | | Latest Poll of polls : Obama : 50% McCain : 42% Barr : 5% Nader : 2% McKinney : 0% (less than 0.5%) (1% spread through approximation) 1 to 1 polls Obama : 52% McCain : 42% Latest states polls States for McCain (% for McCain : % for Obama | (+/-) %Margin of error) Alaska ( 55 : 34 | 4) Montana ( 50 : 46 | 4) Idaho ( 69 : 26 | 4) Wyoming ( 66 : 28 | 4) Utah ( 65 : 29 | 4) Arizona ( 45 : 38 | 3) North Dakota ( 52 : 43 | 4) South Dakota ( 55 : 39 | 4) Nebraska ( 60 : 34 | 4) Kansas ( 66 : 31 | 4) Oklahoma ( 61 : 34 | 4) Texas ( 57 : 38 | 4) Missouri ( 49 : 46 | 4) Arkansas ( 53 : 41 | 4) Louisiana ( 50 : 43 | 4) Indiana ( 50 : 46 | 4) Kentucky ( 53 : 41 | 3.5) Tennessee ( 55 : 39 | 4) Mississippi ( 55 : 39 | 4) Alabama ( 58 : 36 | 4) Georgia ( 57 : 39 | 4) South Carolina ( 59 : 37 | 4) Total electoral votes : 180 Risky states : Indiana, Montana States being visited : Virigia, Indiana, North Carolina State for Obama ( % for Obama : % for McCain | (+/-)% magin of error) Hawaii ( 63 : 32 | 4) Washington ( 50 : 44 | 4) Oregon ( 52 : 41 | 4) California ( 53 : 39 | 4) Nevada ( 47 : 45 | 4) Colorado ( 44 : 44 | 4) New Mexico ( 45 : 40 | 4) Minnesota ( 47 : 46 | 4) Iowa ( 55 : 39 | 4) Wisconsin ( 51 : 45 | 3.5) Illinois ( 56 : 36 | 3.5) Michigan ( 51 : 38 | 4) Ohio ( 49 : 46 | 3.5) Florida ( 49 : 44 | 4) North Carolina ( 49 : 49 | 4) Virginia ( 51 : 47 | 4) West Virgina ( 50 : 42 | 4) Maryland ( 54 : 39 | 4) Delaware ( 56 : 38 | 4) Pennsylvania ( 51 : 38 | 4) New Jersey ( 50 : 37 | 3.5) New York ( 58 : 36 | 4) Connecticut ( 47 : 30 | 4.5) Rhode Island ( 45 : 41 | 3.5) Massachusetts ( 55 : 39 | 4) Vermont ( 55 : 38 | 4) New Hampshire ( 52 : 43 | 4) Maine ( 51 : 42 | 4) Total electoral votes : 358 Risky states : Nevada, Minnesota, Ohio Extremely risky (where Obama leads by less than 1%) : Colorado , North Carolina Analysis : Normally, it is a very big achievement in the polls if you hit 50% and you got 20 days to go. Especially so if you are leading by more than 5% in the national polls and you have near 2 thirds of the electoral college. Now this is where the problem is: 1) McCain now has nothing to lose. He would not be under any pressure to do anything that would cause him to go lower. 2) On the most important issue of today, the economy, Obama released his plans to day. He got it spot on in my opinion. But McCain can release a better plan tomorrow that has the good elements of what Obama has today. 3) There is a final debate session this week and it is on the most important issue in this election. The first two debates that he lost now does not matter. He wins that, he got a fair chance to be President. 4) Most importantly, he is chaining Palin. Her voice is now being drowned up with his. That is good. She got in trouble recently when she spoke in a NASCAR rally for eking the crowd to start racist taunts. He is now back to his message of "I am the fighter" and no more "I am the Maverick" or "Who is the real Obama?" As long as he sticks to the positives of himself and not the negativity of Obama, he has a good chance to win. And that begins with tightening the leash on Palin. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1. ClarusVisum (1018)
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4 years ago
| | Responding to your judgments using the same number system: 1) He has the election to lose. He's actually under MORE pressure now than ever before, because he's way behind and the clock is ticking. 2) If McCain builds on Obama's ideas, he will be labeled a copycat by the media, and his conservative base will be angry at him. Did you see the clip of McCain telling the crowd they don't have to be afraid of an Obama Presidency? He got BOOED when he said that. Booed at his own rally! He's too deep in the hole now. 3) Again, I think you're setting the bar way too low for McCain. After two defeats in a row, McCain doesn't just need to win this next debate--he needs to CRUSH Obama, and in fact, he's promised to kick his "you-know-what" (his words) at the debate. If he does not FULLY live up to that expectation, his numbers will drop even more. 4) There is not enough time for him to 'start over'. VERY few undecided voters remain in October, and the ones that do have seen what he's done so far. They're simply NOT going to buy into a sudden 180-degree shift in strategy as anything but another political stunt, like his (fake) "suspension" of his campaign. All he will do by trying to suddenly change everything around is look erratic again, and that will play perfectly into the current meme on his campaign. McCain is losing by a LOT. Every electoral map projection I've seen has Obama with 320 or MORE electoral votes. That's FIFTY more than he needs to win. No, a simple 'be good from now on' isn't going to do it for McCain. Something VERY major has to happen, or Obama has to commit a SERIOUS, EXTREMELY damaging gaffe for McCain to have a chance at even bringing this race back to a dead heat, much less put him on top. You're being too generous. Leads like the one Obama has now are very, VERY difficult to whittle away, much less overcome. | | | | | | | PreetSG (257)
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4 years ago
| | I would respond it the same way. 1) Dude look at the state by state numbers. At most, McCain can only lose 2 more states : Montana and Indiana. If that really happens, he hit the bottom of the barrel. That would be it. He really has got nothing to lose. As it is he is being beaten in the electoral votes 2 to 1. In Superbowl context, it is Hail Mary all the way for McCain. And we know how effective that can be. 2) He can build and improve on it. It is so very possible. And I still do not get what him being booed has got anything to do with this. 3) What is the central theme of this election; it is not Bill Ayers or the Keating 5, it is the economy. That is what the nation is stressed up on. Even if McCain wins the debate unconvincingly, it would dent this image that Obama knows more about the economy than him. That is why Obama is leading today. 4) Tom Bradley was leading in the polls by 12% in the Governor's race for California. He lost by 1.2%. Race can affect Obama too and it is something that the Obama campaign themselves are not taking lightly. A gaffe can happen anytime to anyone. I would not be so confident if I were you. The point that I wanted to make was that this is the week that McCain can turn things around and give himself a chance to win the election... I may support Obama, but I am not going to let that blind the facts when I start discussions here. | | | | ClarusVisum (1018)
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4 years ago
| | 1) All of McCain's past "Hail Mary"s have failed, from his VP pick to his fake suspension. They have painted him as erratic and impulsive, and now voters feel that Obama is the safer choice for President. ANOTHER Hail Mary is just going to reinforce that and make McCain drop even more. 2) We'll just agree to disagree, I guess. 3) Yes, the central theme is the economy. And if that's so, McCain loses. His campaign has PLAINLY ADMITTED THIS themselves! (Source: http://www.nydailynews.co...) This is PRECISELY the reason that McCain has been trying to talk about other stuff lately, because the McCain campaign knows that Obama wins on the economy, hands down. 4) Don't concern yourself with the so-called Bradley Effect; it doesn't exist, at least not anymore (there is now significant evidence to suggest that it may have NEVER existed to begin with, and may have just been shoddy polling all along, but that's neither here nor there): http://www.fivethirtyeigh... I'm not being overconfident, just realistic--McCain is deep in the hole. It doesn't mean the election is a foregone conclusion, but it means that something SERIOUS needs to happen. The race becoming a dead heat again ISN'T just going to happen by itself, much less become in McCain's favor. A McCain win will not fall into his lap, and his time to turn things around is quickly fading. | | | | | | | McKinney Dating Online dating service in McKinney. Find local singles now. LavaPlace.com | add comment | | | |
| 2. kennyrose (5047)
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4 years ago
| | Good question who is the real Obama,an democrat attorney filed in court to see Barack Obama's original birth certificate,Barack Obama was served legal papers then he and the DNC filed their responds which was Barack Obama refuses to summit his original birth certificate. So that is a very good question how is Barack Obama,maybe McCain will bring this up on Wednesday night, can't say if he will or if he won't but I do know the American people have a right to know who is thsi man Barack Obama,if he has nothing to hide then he would had not refused to show his original birth certificate,people that have nothing to hide do not behave in such a way. Maybe McCain will bring up the fact Obama at Acorn in Chicgo trained peope to get other to vote democrat and we have Acorn personal like fleas in 12 swing states registering 37,000 felons and 30,000 other illegal voters in the swing state of Florida,Acorn has been busted for voters fraud in almost every swing state,Barack Obama just this year fund Acorn $80,000 tax payers dollars,of course he has said he has no connection with Acorn. So we have to wait to see what John Mccain has to talk about on Wednesday night,one thing for certain McCain really dose have a lot to talk about and it is his duty as our servant to talk about this kind of corruption after all the American voters have said they want Washington cleaned up,can't be done if voters give the keys of the white house to a criminal,hell that putting the fox in the hen house to watch the chickens. Good job breaking the polls down lots of work,good job,thank you. | | | | | | | PreetSG (257)
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4 years ago
| | Kenny, Kenny, Kenny ..... You really do not get it do you? The theme of "Who is the real Obama" is being debunked by the McCain's campaign. As for ACORN: I suggest you take the McCain's take on that issue and not the poison that Palin spews. It is not like what you say. The problem with ACORN, very simple: They pay people to get voters registered who are usually poor or uneducated. Usually they are minority origins like Black or Hispanic and therefore very Democrat. The issue with ACORN is not that the organization is a fraud, it is that they are (in McCain's campaign letters) "grossly negligent" and has to restructure or be shut down. ACORN pays per name and leaves it to the FEC to check its validity. So get your facts right. Obama has a birth certificate and is cleared on all fronts on that count. You have got to be living in some delusion if you think Obama is not born in the USA. | | | | anniepa (11669)
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4 years ago
| | Kennyrose really believes the voters are more concerned about Acorn and Ayers than they care about the economy. She is so sheltered in her own little cocoon (maybe she shares one with McCain...lol?) she has no idea what people who have lost their jobs or may lose them are going through, whose retirement funds are now gone, who has lost or may lose their home to foreclosure or who can't afford health care for themselves or their families with many being forced to file for bankruptcy due to medical bill they simply can't pay. Rose, read my lips or at least my words here - WE DON'T CARE!! Annie | | | | MoonlightSerenade (998)
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4 years ago
| | Kennyrose is not aware that Republicans also use ACORN's services and have supported them in numerous ways -- yes, kennyrose, Republicans have signed up former prisoners to vote through ACORN. Also, there are fraudulent registrations through McCain's website just as well as obama's. Can these people show up and vote under Donald Duck or supercalifragilisticexpialidocious or such? Of course not. http://www.huffingtonpost... Also: Kennyrose please stop tagging with pure libel. "a vote for Obama is a vote to blow the USA off the map" and whatever -- that would be libel. | | | | | | | John McCain Latest News Latest News on McCain '08 – Find yellowpages.com | add comment | | | |
| 3. anniepa (11669)
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4 years ago
| | Thanks for posting all of this valuable information, you did the homework so the rest of us don't have to and I know I appreciate it! I understand completely that while things look quite good for Obama right, we can't take anything for granted. However, McCain has used up about 8 of his 9 lives so he really has to beware from now on until election day. Annie | | | | | | | | | | Online Real Estate Course America's #1 Online Real Estate School! CareerWebSchool.com | add comment | | | |
| 4. MoonlightSerenade (998)
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4 years ago
| | Obama's plan stimulates small business growth, the middle class, creates jobs, supports our infrastructure. He has great economic advisors. What McCain failed to do yesterday and Obama did do, I think is going to pretty much seal the deal. Obama is right to never take anything for granted, though. His steady focus on keeping the message out there every day is what has gotten him this far. | | | | | | | | | | Professional Source Save and cut costs by 20% http://www.budgetsource.com | add comment | | | |
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