Latest Polls: Some good news for McCain  

Latest national poll of polls :

Obama 51%
McCain 43%
Nader 3%
Barr 3%
Others less than 0.5%



Latest state poll of polls

Washington

Obama 55%
McCain 34%

Note: I still can't understand why every pundit still thinks that this state is leaning Obama. It is so safe Obama. Every poll puts Obama at least 14% ahead in this state; where is the fight?


Montana (MOE (Margin of Error) 4%)

McCain 48%
Obama 44%

Note : Should be safe for McCain. Even though it is technically a dead heat, it is very hard for Obama to win it so late when he is just at the point of MOE. The Republicans have diverted $300000 away from Nevada to be put in Montana. Should be a done deal for McCain.


Arizona (MOE 3%)

McCain 46%
Obama 44%

Note: Obama actually challenging McCain on his home turf? Nah; I do not think so. IMO, the reason that the race appears close hear is that students in Arizona State University (one of the 3 inputs to this poll of polls) may have taken polls in a concentric area. That could have caused the numbers to be topsy turvy. I really do not think that that many Ron Paul supporters would be Obama 'converts'. McCain's numbers have always been around that 45 to 48%; but Obama's numbers are usually in the late 30s.


Nevada (MOE 4.5%)

Obama 50%
McCain 40%

Note: One of the best results for Obama. For one, it has a large sampling frequency and thus an extremely accurate poll of polls. Another reason is that many of the parties in the polls are very unbiased and proper pollsters. So when it shows a 10% lead for Obama that is good.


Indiana (MOE : 4%)

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Note : A complete dead heat. Obama leads by 0.8% ( or 40 individual samples) which is definitely subject to MOE. Obama actually gained ground in this state in a race in this state that is turning into a see saw. The Independent vote there could be a deciding factor. Obama gained on Nader and not much on McCain. McCain numbers are nimble here but Obama's numbers are volatile. A toss-up. No one knows what is going to happen here or dares to predict anything.


Ohio (MOE 4%)

Obama 49%
McCain 40%

Note : Polling accuracy here too is good. Obama in firm control. He is in the drivers seat in this state. All he has to do to win is not to screw up. But then again, anything can happen.



North Carolina (MOE : 4.5%)

McCain 47%
Obama 47%

Note : What a race down here. It is back to even-stevens here. Believe it or not, with a sample pool of 4000, McCain has just a lead of 18 samples. That is bloody close! One of the state to watch.


Conclusion : The national lead remains but the story can be different from yesterday. He is assured Montana and Arizona and is leading in NC. He is still sweating out in Ohio so that race is still dynamic. Only Nevada, which his campaign seems to be less interested in anyway, is seeming to be a lost cause. So not a bad day with the polls for McCain.