Can "Dewey Defeats Truman" happen in this election?
By clrumfelt
@clrumfelt (5597)
Tennessee Ridge, Tennessee
October 7, 2008 9:45am CST
Weeks prior to the 1948 election, many leading editorial writers and political columnists relied on early Gallup Polls, which predicted Thomas E. Dewey's win over incumbent Harry S. Truman. In spite of all the media predictions to the contrary, even based on Gallup Polls a few weeks before the election, Truman still defeated Dewey in the presidential election. Do you think this could happen today, even with the more sophisticated forms of media and polling methods?
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4 responses
@suspenseful (40192)
• Canada
8 Oct 08
I have no idea who will win. I do hope that McCain wins, but it seems that the media prefers Obama. I also know that some are resorting to dirty tricks to help Obama by bringing up McCain's past or past associates and some of these people are here on myLot. So it could happen that the one you were expected to win might not. And the one expected to lose might win. That is why this is a scary election. If the one with the most charm wins, we will be in trouble.
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@clrumfelt (5597)
• Tennessee Ridge, Tennessee
9 Oct 08
I am believing McCain will win, just because I think that most Americans aren't that gullible, to choose charm over dedication when choosing a president. I think polls are highly changable and that they are manipulated in a variety of ways in their presentations according the the whims of the MSM. Obama's resume looks lame alongside John McCain's, so I think most people will realize he is the better candidate to choose.
@BKP100 (1)
• United States
22 Oct 08
I'm a McCain supporter, however (and unfortunately) I've come to believe Americans *are* that gullible.
They respond to talking points parroted by partisan automatons, as opposed to doing the research for themselves.
They listen to campaign mantras that have absolutely no substance or meaning.
They believe what they hear, if they hear it enough times.
They vote a party without even understanding what that party's platform *really* stands for today.
They buy what an incredibly tainted mainstream media feeds them.
They believe the indignation and outrage of fools like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, in reference to the credit meltdown, when those two were probably more responsible than any other elected official.
They believe the perpetually "edited" platforms of Barack Obama, whom's entire career has been all about his own advancement (he's never written biographies, or novels, or texts -- only *autobiographies* -- it's always about Obama).
They would rather respond to elegant two-faced smiles, and empty polished promises, than disheveled substance, and awkward honesty.
I've given up. They'll get what they deserve...
@kenzie45230 (3560)
• United States
8 Oct 08
Absolutely. For instance, just today I saw a report by one of the pollsters that I value. While most polls have Obama ahead by 10-12 points, this Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll says differently.[i]"Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 3-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain less than a month before the election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Obama leads McCain among likely U.S. voters 48 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, which has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Four percent of voters said they were still undecided."[/i]http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4961BK20081007?feedType=nl&feedName=ustopnewsearly
We all need to remember that many of the most vocal people don't actually go out and vote. 
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@clrumfelt (5597)
• Tennessee Ridge, Tennessee
9 Oct 08
Thanks for responding, kenzie. This information is very encouraging. Routers is a well known news agency and I'm glad they are being thorough to try and get a lot of demographic information when they do their polls. In my opinion it gives a much more accurate view of how the American people are thinking.
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
7 Oct 08
It is true polling is more sophisticated and potentially more accurate than in 1948. Unfortunately, pollsters do not seem as honest. I suspect what has been gained in polling technology has been lost to pollster's dishonesty.
Vote McCain - Palin!
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@clrumfelt (5597)
• Tennessee Ridge, Tennessee
8 Oct 08
I think the MSM still try their best to make everyone believe the election is a done deal long before election day, just as they did in 1948.
@sirnose (2436)
• United States
7 Oct 08
What do you mean could it happen again today?...What you been living in a cave? it happen nearly 8 yrs ago when the talking heads give Vice President Al Gore the election when they declare him the winner of Florida ...and we all know what happen there...With this here election anything can happen polls are really meaningless they usually favor the candidate who paid for the poll...with the economy as it is i still feel that the voting public will choose "experience of youth"...
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@clrumfelt (5597)
• Tennessee Ridge, Tennessee
7 Oct 08
Sorry, sirnose, my tv antenna doesn't pick up very well through these stone
walls. I agree the polls are basically meaningless and the media mostly
tells us what they want us to hear. Thanks for your response.
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