How will we react if a Black Swan event occurs?
By Shiva
@Shiva49 (28371)
Singapore
April 23, 2018 8:28am CST
"A Black Swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict. Black swan events are typically random and unexpected."
We are facing uncertainties, and anxieties are part of life all the time. Mankind is always anxious and on guard though we get complacent at times. Nature has been benign during our time when compared to huge catastrophes that occurred earlier times.
Should one humongous event occur, how well are we prepared to face it? It can be a huge natural calamity that can threaten our very survival. Super volcanic eruptions are one such that can block out sunlight for months or even years upsetting the climate pattern we are used to.
We are vulnerable from natural calamities and also our own inability to coexist. We have seen brinkmanship due to unreasonable behavior of few powerful. The progress in science and technology has not made a dent on our bigotry.
I believe a big crisis will unite us, but are we prepared now or will we wait for a fire to engulf us before we think of a united front to tackle it? The goodness lies interred within, but will it shine to play its part when we are pushed against the wall?
I do hope no such event occurs.
Do you think we are prepared to face such a calamity as one?
Image: Volcanic Eruption from Wikimedia Commons
7 people like this
8 responses
@Shiva49 (28371)
• Singapore
24 Apr 18
I quote from the Financial Times. Please note Australia is mentioned:
"An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable." Mr. Taleb is a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.
He took his title from the shock that Europeans experienced when they discovered black swans in Australia. Until then, their data told them that all swans were white, so the discovery was unexpected.
A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historical data. Such a risk model would assume that all swans were white.
Mr. Taleb suggests his idea has been misunderstood. The problem, he told the CFA Institute in 2008, is not that black swans occur often. Rather, it is that they have truly catastrophic and unpredictable effects when they do happen, and so risk managers should concentrate on guarding against them." siva
4 people like this
@BelleStarr (61463)
• United States
16 May 18
@Shiva49 I guess I have to agree, how can you prepare for something that has never happened before.
1 person likes this
@Jessabuma (31696)
• Baguio, Philippines
23 Apr 18
I'm very afraid this event occurs.. hopefully it will never happen.. but we can't control it..
2 people like this
@Jessabuma (31696)
• Baguio, Philippines
23 Apr 18
@Shiva49 yes I totally agree with you.
2 people like this
@Shiva49 (28371)
• Singapore
25 Apr 18
If we spend the time to discuss and come to some agreement how to react to such, the process can unite us. Yes, we do not know what is going to act up but we can plan a united front; thinking of the future of humanity should unite us as we seem to be a house divided now - siva
2 people like this
@innertalks (23734)
• Australia
24 Apr 18
If a catastrophe occurs here, like a large meteor strike, I wonder too, if God would reach across from heaven to help us, or would he just leave us to our fate?
The monitoring of the Earth is continuous by God, as his plan is his plan, and anything that happens does not happen outside of his plan, but as a part of it. Mankind then is always being tested by the implementation of the next phase in the plan.
If a black swan flies into view then, will we pluck it and eat it, or be eaten by it?
One thing for sure, though, there will probably be some crows left here to pick up the pieces!
Photo Credit:
This photo is sourced from the free media sit: pixabay.com
@innertalks (23734)
• Australia
24 Apr 18
@Shiva49 Not all meteorites are bad though.
I read about at least one that landed here (on the Earth) in Africa, I think, and it was loaded with diamonds on it. A lucky find indeed!
1 person likes this
@innertalks (23734)
• Australia
24 Apr 18
@Shiva49 If we become dinosaurs too (i.e. don't learn from our mistakes), that will be twice that they will have disappeared then too...LOL...
1 person likes this
@Shiva49 (28371)
• Singapore
24 Apr 18
@innertalks It is said we even owe our existence to that meteor/asteroid/comet that crashed to the earth at the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico decimating the dinosaurs. In a way, this proves a coin has two sides; also, when one door closes another opens - end of one giant species to make way for the mighty us!
Hope the meteorites. loaded with the goodies, have better guiding system to make a gentle landing! siva
1 person likes this
@allknowing (153544)
• India
28 Apr 18
There is nothing one can do to avert or avoid a calamity. We had the experience of a mini tornado which cane unannounced and we faced it.
1 person likes this
@allknowing (153544)
• India
28 Apr 18
@Shiva49 Believe it or not when there is a crisis most rally round regardless of who they are rallying around for - friend or foe. I have seen that happening.
1 person likes this
@Shiva49 (28371)
• Singapore
28 Apr 18
The recent news has rejuvenated my hopes for inclusive action to face calamities.
Our leaders, who were out to destroy the world, seem to be more human though pride and ego lead to a certain downfall.
Though we cannot predict what can befall us, empathy and compassion should come to our rescue to face such as one - siva
1 person likes this
@Shiva49 (28371)
• Singapore
28 Apr 18
@allknowing Maybe we tend to drift and even go at each other's throats till a crisis unites us for while.
After the First World War, we had the League of Nations and after the Second, the now forgotten and toothless, The United Nations.
Hope we don't destroy ourselves before we agree to live together! siva
@JamesHxstatic (29410)
• Eugene, Oregon
15 May 18
Very interesting and thanks for calling my attention to it. I am sure we are in no way prepared for an event like you describe.I had not heard of the term, "Black Swan," but it is apt here.
1 person likes this
@JamesHxstatic (29410)
• Eugene, Oregon
15 May 18
@Shiva49 I'm not sure I have your confidence.
1 person likes this
