oscar honors!

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well i have seen the films that have received the oscar honors!!! be it a hollywood movie or any forign language.. on what basis do they choose??? on public opinion and critics or something else???/ well in the yet to come oscar awards.. which movie do you thing will grab the oscar and why??? in my opinion i would nominate the movie TARE ZAMEEN PAAR!! this movie has received good critics, made people cry, and has made people realise the nature of an irregular kid at school!! what are your views???