McCain's Disappearing Convention Bounce!
By anniepa
@anniepa (27955)
United States
September 18, 2008 12:44am CST
I was just wondering if anyone here has any ideas of what's happened to the McCain/Palin ticket's fantastic convention "bounce" in the polls as well as the reason for Sarah Palin's increasing negative numbers in various public opinion polls. I don't have any links to post, or I should say I'm not posting any, so I'm sure there will be some of you who will discount what I'm saying and show me examples of polls where McCain's numbers have gotten better or held their own. I'm sure there are such polls since there are about a million of them altogether...lol! However, I've heard on several shows today that there has been a pretty big swing in some of the major polls in Obama's favor and that Florida is now a dead heat and North Carolina, which should have been an absolutely slam-dunk for the GOP is now very much in play.
What do you think has happened? Has the novelty worn off of his V.P. and have some people come down from their "Palin high", possibly after hearing her first interviews? Do you think it's the horrible economic news of the past few days that have brought people down to earth?
Annie
3 people like this
7 responses
@ZephyrSun (7381)
• United States
18 Sep 08
Well I know from other discussions boards that I am a part of, sorry they are for parents of special needs children and nonpaying lol. Seems that some parents like myself have lost their steam on Palin because she isn't talking. I'm kinda wondering how much she will continue to fall since she is refusing to talk. I don't think it will mean anything to die hards but, Indy and undecided would really have to ask themselves if they want four more years of questions not being answered.
3 people like this
@anniepa (27955)
• United States
18 Sep 08
She's refusing to talk plus every day there's something new coming out about her that's not very good. I realize her staunchest supporters will blame that all on the liberal media and the Obama camp for trying to dig up dirt about her, but there's a lot that's floating to the surface without much digging being needed. You can cover a lot of stuff up with a thick enough coat of polish!
Annie
@ZephyrSun (7381)
• United States
19 Sep 08
I just reread my post and gave myself the impression that I was voting for McCain I hope you didn't get that impression. I guess I didn't have enough stress this morning and my brain wasn't working when I posted. Guess McCain camp better by stock in Revlon.
1 person likes this
@irishidid (8687)
• United States
18 Sep 08
I think things will even themselves out for both candidates and as much as we'd like to predict the outcome only the election will tell the ending.
This race is a farce on both sides and whoever win will join the farce that is our government. We're waiting for the miracle cure that isn't coming.
3 people like this
@evanslf (484)
•
18 Sep 08
McCain got a bounce post convention/Palin and took a 2% lead in the national opinion polls. This McCain bounce has now faded somewhat as it was bound to do. In the Cnn poll of polls, Obama has now taken a 1 point lead, 46-45.
That said, McCain is still enjoying the benefits of having selected Palin, particularly in the red states where it has strengthened his position, but the Palin factor is probably less of a help in the blue and battleground states which I notice didn't move that much even when he was fully benefitting from his bounce. Now with the negative press reports on Palin and in particular this troopergate business, the selection of Palin may start to cause him some problems, perhaps not in the red states where many religious right voters reside, but more so where the election will be decided, ie the battleground states.
But I would caution Dems in not getting too excited, even if the recent economic news should in theory play to the Democratic candidate's advantage. The national polls still remain very close and recent polls in 5 battleground states confirm this. As I've said before, the debates will finally decide this.
@anniepa (27955)
• United States
18 Sep 08
I agree with both of you, these polls don't really mean that much, it's just more or less a "horse race" and the only poll that counts will be the one on Election Day. I also agree there is no miracle cure coming, much as we could sure use one!
Annie
@mehale (2200)
• United States
18 Sep 08
It is quite possible that the economy does have something to do with it; after all McCain has been quoted as saying that our economy is fundamentally strong - and yet the stock market, failing banks, mortgage crisis, oil prices...you get the idea, continue to show that our economy is in fact in serious trouble. So yes that could have something to do with it.
However, I also believe that some of it can be blamed on Palin's refusal to cooperate in the troopadore investigation. After all she did say she would cooperate in the beginning, and now she says no. This says that she probably does have something to hide. This also makes voters have doubts about her integrity, honesty, and moral standards. So this probably has a lot to do with it as well.
Plus she says she will be a strong advocate to special needs families, but her voting record does not show this. Again a case of saying what is needed to gain votes. These things are noticed by voters. There have also been several instances where they have stretched the facts to fit their needs and make Palin and their Republican ticket look good.
I am not surprised that there is a noticeable drop in the polls for the GOP ticket.
2 people like this
@anniepa (27955)
• United States
18 Sep 08
Today there's an even bigger turnaround in the polls and I have a feeling it's going to get even bigger still. Obama's well within the margin of error in both Florida and Ohio and it's been said if he takes one of these states he'll win the election.
Annie
@soccermom (3198)
• United States
18 Sep 08
I think the economy has a lot to do with it. I've seen limited news this week, but I know CNN had a segment that comapred the McCain and Obama economic plans and Obama came out ahead on that. Not to mention Alan Greenspan came out and said that McCains plan wasn't very good, it doesn't seem to be a big discussion topic, but it had to hurt considering he has backed McCain. Personally my week has been spent at work answering call after call after call about people concerned with their insurance and investment plans at the insurance company I work for. Thank God I can honestly tell them that we are a very conservative company, none of our investments had anything to do with AIG, and we don't insure in states that have experienced major catastrophes so we are financially sound. We are one of the very few that can say this mess may actually be fortunate for us as a company.
Anyway, back to the bounce. I also think alot of it has to do with Palin not really speaking much, and when she does it doesn't come across as very intelligent. I noticed at the town hall meeting yesterday that McCain stepped in when she was asked foreign affairs questions. Also noticed this week that Obama is focusing less attention on Palin and more on where it really matters, McCain and the economy.
@cbreeze (1205)
• United States
18 Sep 08
You can say people have come off their Sara Palin high the same way you could say they've come off of their Obama high when his numbers were down. I think people are fascinated with both of them. They break with our traditional candidates and both are new on the scene. I think you will see the numbers continue to "bounce" up and down as the public "gets to know" them and makes a judgement about them.
1 person likes this
@spalladino (17891)
• United States
18 Sep 08
The newness of the shiny penny is wearing off and people are starting to see the real Palin now. I heard on the news that the manufacturer of those specs she wears has had thousands of orders since the convention, which is a good example of how people react to something or someone new and unusual. Gotta have that cause she's wearing it! Now that the frenzie has settled down and Palin has actually done some talking on her own, instead of simple giving speeches, the public are getting a little clearer picture of her.
The questionable activities from her past aren't doing the campaign any good either and, actually, thumbing your nose at a state legislative body...any state legislative body...trying to investigate internal corruption is really looked down upon by the general population when someone is running for the second highest position in the country. Do we really want an administration that would block efforts to get to the truth of a serious allegation, whatever that truth might be? McCain's numbers would probably take another bounce if Palin cooperated with the investigation instead of acting guilty. Biased, hijacked by the Democrats or not, if she and her staff did nothing wrong, how can it be spun to look like they did?
@anniepa (27955)
• United States
18 Sep 08
I noticed today when she was speaking she's getting louder and more shrill but still saying nothing new at all rather than attacking Obama and Biden. She'd promised to cooperate completely with this "troopergate" investigation but now she's flip-flopped and the average American voter isn't going to care about her claims that it's biased or hijacked they're just going to think she looks guilty and like she has something to hide. It's always the cover-up, or appearance of one, that gets people into trouble in all of these "gate" cases, isn't it?
Annie
@collieluv28 (388)
• United States
18 Sep 08
We are finding out more & more about Sarah Palin & people are opening their eyes now as if waking from a deep trance. The Palin bounce is over & reality has set in. Gov. Palin was chosen as the VP nominee to appeal to women & conservatives. It looked good at first & then Palin opened her mouth & the press did some digging. Now that we know more about her, she doesn't look as good as we thought.
The economy has a lot to do with it as well. Now the issues are back to the forefront instead of designer eyeglasses & lipstick-wearing pigs. I, for one, am glad to hear it. Let's talk issues so that voters can make an informed decision.








