The Washington Times suggested if there were a tie in electoral college
By Steve
@shoffman2000 (560)
Alexandria, Virginia
September 23, 2008 8:36pm CST
The Washington Times suggested if there was a tie in the electoral college, Obama would get elected President and McCain running mate would become the VP What do think would happen if this became a reality. This is no blind speculation but a definite legal possibility
3 responses
@sedel1027 (17846)
• Cupertino, California
24 Sep 08
From the very little I remeber from Civics class 10+ years ago, that is not what would happen. If there is a tie in the electoral college, I think the House of Reps gets to vote and determine who wins.
@snowy22315 (209177)
• United States
24 Sep 08
Yes your memory is correct but the washington times is clear based on the current power in the House the current vp would break a tie and that is how mccain vp would win
@sedel1027 (17846)
• Cupertino, California
24 Sep 08
That is quite stupid that the VP and P can be chosen from either party. Personally, I think they should allow the House & Congress to vote for anyone who ran for president.
@evanslf (484)
•
24 Sep 08
Though a tie in the electoral college is unlikely, it is not insignificant as a possibility with political experts saying that there is a 2% chance of this happening.
As I follow this election, I wonder if the chance is more than that, particularly when one considers the four states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.
At the last election, Kerry got 252 electoral college votes and so Obama, if he can get Ohio, would then have 272 and win the election. But we know that Obama has had trouble gaining support amongst working class blue collar voters in the rustbelt states and it is far from clear that he will win Ohio.
On the other hand, polling is starting to show Obama consolidating a small but persistent lead in two states: Iowa and New Mexico which are both outside the margin of error. If he wins these two, 252 votes goes up to 264 and if he wins Colorado, which is toss up with Obama very marginally ahead it seems, then that takes him over the top to win with 273 electoral college votes, assuming he holds on to all the states that Kerry won.
But then comes New Hampshire, a traditionally independent state that has liked McCain in the past, the battle is very close there and McCain has been fractionally in the lead in some polls, behind in others. Now should McCain win in New Hampshire, then Obama falls back to 269 and we then have a tie.
So I can see this scenario quite possibly playing out and I think it may be more than 2% chance, with McCain holding on to all the states won in 2004, except Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (state polling shows McCain tied in Ohio, and ahead within margin of error in Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, etc) but if New Hampshire flips to McCain, we get a 269-269 tie. This I believe is the most likely scenario where a tie could happen.
If there is a tied situation, then it is likely however that Obama will get elected president. The election goes to the House of Representatives who then vote by congressional delegation units. What this means is that all states, however large or small, will have an equal vote when it comes to determining the President (so California and Texas, with all their congressmen, will count as one vote each, as will small states like New Hampshire). If a State has the same number of Republican and Democrat congressmen then that state will likely be deadlocked if they vote along party lines, in which case that State won't be able to vote and therefore the people of that state will be disenfranchised.
Now political analysts believe that out of the 51 congressional delegations, the Democrats will have 27 and may, after these elections pick up one or two more. So this would seem to suggest that if it is a 269-269 tie, Obama will win - the only way this might not happen is if some 'blue dog' Democrat congressmen or other Dem congressmen elected in very red states defect to McCain, perhaps under political pressure to save their own skins fro the wrath of their constituents. I think it is probably unlikely, but not entirely impossible.
My understanding is that if the House of Representatives is deadlocked (highly unlikely, but you never know), ie in a situation of a 25-25 tie because of defections above with one State deadlocked, then the election goes to the Senate which votes for the VP, not the President. In this case, the vote is by individual Senators and so it is highly likely that the Dems will win here and in this scenario, Biden becomes acting President (not quite clear what happens to Obama and whether Biden then runs the country effectively as president for the 4 year term)
Now if the Senate is also deadlocked (again highly unlikely as the Dems are likely to have somewhere between 55 and 57 Senators after these elections), then my understanding is that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, will act as president (again for how long, I am not sure).
Well I hope this helps!
@ZephyrSun (7381)
• United States
24 Sep 08
Well according to our Constitution one branch of Congress votes on the President and the other branch votes on the Vice President, since both are controlled by Democrats I wouldn't see an election of a Democrat and Republican for the two positions.



