Forex... Fundamental Analysis... Reading the news...

@ahgong (10064)
Singapore
May 28, 2009 10:39pm CST
I am revisiting this topic again. Cos I read in a few books that looking at the charts to do a TA for trading is just part of the equation. The other part is fundamental analysis. And this is where one must decipher the news to seek out the market sentiments to determine a general market trend for that period. I know that the market moves with the news. And knowing what is happening in the news will give you a better idea of what other people are thinking which will determine the general direction that the market will move for the day. The confusing part is recognizing which news to listen to to recognize this direction. Just yesterday, the USD/JPY market move an amazing 200 plus pips in the up direction, from 94.80++ to peak above 97.00 before hovering at just below the 97.00 mark. Following the news the past week, there was announcement first of a weakening US dollar. Looking at that, one would expect the direction of the market to go into a short as weakening of USD would mean a sell low, buy lower. At least, that was what I thought. But looking at the market, it generally went long! And the price crept from a low end 94.00 to hover at 95.00. I cannot understand why. Then yesterday morning, news of the Japanese economy indicating a shrinkage in their imports, the market went wild! Within a few hours, the USD/JPY when from 94.70++ all the way up to 96.4++ and peaked at 97.1++ nearing the evening! If the imports for Japan shrunk, that would mean that the JPY is weakening, right? That would mean that you can buy more JPY with each dollar. That is why there was this crazy buy frenzy! Sigh... two pieces of news. One was clear and indicative (refer to the shrinking imports for Japan) and the other was just plain confusing (refer weakening USD yet market goes into a buying trend). This is frustrating!
1 person likes this
1 response
@kun2349 (23381)
• Singapore
30 May 09
lol =D Things are never easy.. If it's that easy, there will be alot of millionaires around now ^_^ Some news are meant to be true while some news are just rumours.. What's reported are mostly based on estimation and not totally accurate.. Thus, one cant really do analysis based on news.. For example, though imports for japan shrunk, but japan does not depend on imports.. They do more on exports and depend on their own products.. So when import declines for their side, they dun lose out much as it's not their main.. haha =D That's why, one should also know which country are stronger in whatever things, and therefore decide for themselves if it really affects them ^_^ hehe
1 person likes this
@ahgong (10064)
• Singapore
1 Jun 09
Yeah, that is something that I am learning as well. Will have to pay more attention to the different news. And then look at how the markets react to them. And then, maybe, be able to relate them to each other so that I can use this as a tool in my quest.
1 person likes this
@kun2349 (23381)
• Singapore
1 Jun 09
YUp ^_^ That's why, playing in forex is just like playing the stock market.. THere are news everyday, and it's not the news that affect trading, rather, it's investors themselves ^_^
1 person likes this
@kun2349 (23381)
• Singapore
5 Jun 09
Stock is too complicated for me right now, and there are just too many things involved in that.. Even VIP of company being hospitalised or whatever, can cause their shares to drop in value!! lol =D Some things are just too personal for common ple like us to know, and yet we have to suffer the losses if we happen to be holding that stock.. haha =D Forex is much simplier in a big as it's more clearer as a big picture for all to see.. hehe ^_^ Well, i'm waiting for that.. haha =D
1 person likes this