is the recession really over?

@rubiana6 (270)
Brazil
August 21, 2009 8:28am CST
more and more voices say that the worldwide recession is already over. Stocks make new highs, people start to get on the train of a bullish economy. Do you think that this is only a bubble because nobody wants to miss the train, but as soon as everybody is in the train, invested in stocks etc. there will be a main downretracement again? Do you think its a v-shape recession, like some politicians wants us to believe and we are over the bottom or it will be a W-shape recession and there will be another major downmove to come?
1 person likes this
3 responses
@coffeebreak (17811)
• United States
23 Aug 09
Unemployment is still high.. but I sometimes think the rest of the recession is on it way to being over. I'm a coupon/sale person...if it isn't at least or the other, I don't buy it. But 6 months ago...BOGO free was all over the place... coupons, sales, you name it. Now... it is BOGO 1/2 price. Even KOhl's was BOGO free and now it is BOGO 1/2 price. Coupons at the fast foods, used to be BOGO free, and now it is either 1/2 price or BOGO for $1. So if it is starting at the bottom with little things..next step is more expensive. I have noticed things like Big screen TV, computers, laptops.. things like that never did hardly get hit... they seem to have stayed very close to what they were prior to the crash. I have followed it all closely like everyone else.. and if people hadn't bought houses for more than they could afford the payment on... this would not have happened. What you qualify for and what you can afford are two different things...loans were based on what you qualified for, not what the borrower could afford..... Ergo the first step fo the crash. But I think Washington is so full of nothing but those that have always had, and never done without and have always had unlimited expense accounts that they have never had to pay the bill for... that they don't know how to get money to those that will be spending it to make the economy recover. At Tax Stim for $600 per couple last year, wasn't enough to do anything! Most just put it toward gas to get to work, or pay back payment on credit cards or house/car payments... but not much went into the economy...mostly cause there wasn't much to put there. $600 isn't much when you have 10 times that in debt.
@rubiana6 (270)
• Brazil
23 Aug 09
yes, but in the US there is still a program that pays you for buying a new car, if i am right, and in Germany for example you get paid if you give away your old car and buy a new one, and in Brasil there are no taxes anymore on cars and things for building a house and so on. Will be interesting to see how the things develop, if all these prgramms stop.
@rosepedal64 (4191)
• United States
21 Aug 09
Im sorry but You can't prove it to me that the recession is over. My husband works out a union hall-equipment operator, and he is still laid off. OH yeah they are telling him that work is started to pick up but it hasn't happen yet. Maybe this employment is raising in some area but it hasn't hit here yet. For me to say if it's a v or w shape I can't tell yet. In my eyes it can go either way.
@rubiana6 (270)
• Brazil
22 Aug 09
i agree with you. i think being optimistic is generally a good thing, but the recovery is still only sentiment driven and not backed up by economic fundamentals yet. There is the danger that we will see a downward turn again.
@Hatley (164168)
• Garden Grove, California
24 Aug 09
Hi rubiana no not at all its horrible here in southern California with the jobless rate the highest its ever been 'my own son has been out of work for nearly a year ,,it' brokeup our family son and I,hes in govpaid housing forjobless'men while i am in a retirement center so we both would have roofs'over'our heads and someplace to live. I know nothing about v shapes or'w shapes I just need its terrible here.,