# is there really a chance of winning to lotto or any raffle entry?

@aaa0126 (205)
Philippines
March 16, 2007 3:52am CST
yes i am very optimitimistic that someday i'm going to win,, i want to win because i need to help my family,relatives,, and to save money for our better future,, who does'nt wnat to,, but by GOD's GRACE, it will all be given to me,, at the right time!
1 response
25 Mar 07
The lottery is a tax on poor people and people who can not do math. If you play the lotto, I hope you feel the money you are putting into it is worth the entertainment value, because statistically that is all you are going to gain. The chances of winning a substantial jackpot start at around 0.000025% and just get worse from there. Let's assume someone spends an average of \$35 a month on playing the lottery. They play every month from age 18 to 68. In that time they will have spent \$21,000 dollars playing the lottery. Doesn't sound like much over 50 years. If you add up all the probabilities for each individual month you get a 1.5% chance of winning sometime within the 50 year time frame (assuming the chances of winning stay constant at 1 in 4 million). That 1.5% is derived from the formula: Pn = (P1+P2+Pn..) - (P1*P2*Pn..) Or simplified since our numbers are constant: Ptotal = (Pmonth * 12 months * 50 years) - (Pmonth ^ (12 months * 50 years)) Let's assume instead of playing the lottery with that money, instead they invested the \$35 a month in good mutual funds earning an average 12% rate of return. Some years are good, some bad, but that's the average. At age 68 by investing that money, they will be a millionaire. Not 1 in 4 million times, but nearly every time. They just changed their success rate at being a millionaire by the age of 68 from 0.000025% to greater than 90%. Even if that mutual fund didn't perform at quite the rate we wanted, I'll offer my personal guarantee that you will still be in a better position financially. Draven the Respectful Atheist http://dravenwriter.blogspot.com
25 Mar 07
Slight correction, they changed their chances from 1.5% over 50 years to over 90%. Draven the Respectful Atheist http://dravenwriter.blogspot.com
25 Mar 07
I seem to be having a bad math day myself. It's not 1.5%, it's .015%. That is your chance of winning a 1 in 4,000,000 lottery drawing when playing every month for 50 years. So compare .015% chance of success to the 90% chance of success in a good mutual fund with at least 10 years of historical performance. Draven the Respectful Atheist http://dravenwriter.blogspot.com
@aaa0126 (205)
• Philippines
27 Mar 07
thanks very much for the explanation,and doing the math for this discussion i've made,,i now much more willing to save more money and invest it in a mutual fund, thanks for your good advice and best of luck to you...