Will Obama pull off a stunning defeat?

Logically speaking, I think so. I know polls are not all that accurate, but I'm looking at the money that is being raised. That makes a big statement. They talk about the fear of the "Bradley Affect" but I don't think that is a concern. I think people are putting their money where they intend to vote. I think that includes people from all backgrounds. I went to the Obama rally here in St. Louis last Saturday and it was amazing. I saw young, old, white, black, indian, asian, arab, people in wheel chairs, people on oxygen. Just people from every imaginable background.

As I type this they've just been reporting on MSNBC that in two states where they have early voting, North Carolina and Nevada, so far it's been better than a two to one ratio of Democrats to Republicans. The turnout, as I said so far in early voting, is lighter for the GOP than in 2004 and heavier for the Democrats. Obviously we don't know how anyone voted but if we assume most vote for their party's nominee this could be a big sign of things to come. Of course, we've been surprised before! Annie