Grad school - getting in

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I am working on graduate school applications. Of course, stupid me, I am trying to get into a writing program which means that the application isn't all I have to do. I also have to put together a portfolio and an artist's statement (all totaling 40 pages, typed, double-spaced - the only saving grace). All of this trouble and I'm not even confident that I will get accepted. I am trying to get into a fairly competitive program at a private college and I have been away from school for four and a half years (got my undergrad in July 2004). How do you know when "you never know until you try" is really just a pipe dream and you are wasting the application fee and postage to get the whole application packet through the mail? Is there any way of knowing? I guess expecting to be rejected makes it less shocking when it comes...