Can earthquakes be forecast?
By Denise
@petatonicsca (7070)
Japan
September 30, 2016 8:17pm CST
What do you think? Can earthquakes be forecast?
There are many theories by which people (scientific and not) have tried to predict earthquakes. ("Predict" differs from "forecast" in that a prediction is not as specific in area or time and does not include a percentage of likelihood, according to the USGS.)
Some theories or hypotheses are moon phases, using the gravitational pull of the moon and tides on Earth; some expand that to include the gravitational or magnetic pull of other planets and lineups. Some use Newtonian physics: find the central spot between two previous earthquakes and you will get a quake of similar size to those on either side. Observation of animal behavior before quakes, cloud formations known as "earthquake clouds," and human earthquake sensitives who claim that they have certain feelings in different parts of their bodies indicating where a large quake will occur, are a few other possible theories for predicting earthquakes (as opposed to forecasting).
This week, an "earthquake advisory" was issued by the USGS for the area in California surrounding Salton Sea because of increased small quake activity in that area, which touches the San Andreas Fault.
Do you think earthquakes can be accurately forecast? Are you an earthquake sensitive? Do your pets tell you by their behavior if a quake is coming?
As for me, I hope for the day when the weather forecast includes "Cloudy with a chance of earthquake."
13 people like this
15 responses
@OneOfMany (12150)
• United States
1 Oct 16
Get a few prophets on the forecast team and maybe. I predicted the Indian Ocean earthquake several months before it happened. Although I didn't know when, I just had a feeling a tsunami would kill a lot of people in that region and I started to think I was wrong and then it finally happened.
Of course that isn't science. And I'm definitely not sensitive to earthquakes as I can be the only one in an entire region that doesn't feel the quake that everyone else talks about for days. Apparently I have been in 3 quakes and I never even felt them.
2 people like this
@crossbones27 (48430)
• Mojave, California
1 Oct 16
They claim by 1 percent. It is very interesting that they made such a bold statement. So basically the chances of a major earthquake on the San Andeas went up 1 pecernt because of the series of small earthqyakes. I think it was more to get people to be prepared, but the San Adreas runs right by my house or under. I think it has been so long since the fault line has erupted that when it does go we are done either way.
Also now every time a big truck goes by and I hear my window rattle, I will be running to get outside. That is about all this prediction did for me. lol
2 people like this
@nanette64 (20364)
• Fairfield, Texas
1 Oct 16
I don't live in a quake area @petatonicsca although because of fracking here in Texas, it's still a possibility. I would definitely pay attention to my cats behavior for sure.
1 person likes this
@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
1 Oct 16
Check out a youtube channel by a guy called Dutchsinse-- he gets slammed by mainstream scientists a lot but he really does get a lot of them right. Pretty amazing. He is the one who looks for the "fulcrum point" between two quakes-- Newtonian physics. The moon guys may be right but they can't pinpoint much.
1 person likes this
@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
1 Oct 16
The problem is that even if they are forecast people would have nowhere to go-- with typhoons too-- look at Haiyan in the Philippines a few years ago.
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@CoolPeace (1566)
• Miami, Florida
1 Oct 16
I don't think so but only hurricanes can be predicted and sometimes get the weather right.
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@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
1 Oct 16
"Sometimes they get the weather right"-- LOL.
2 people like this
@CoolPeace (1566)
• Miami, Florida
1 Oct 16
@petatonicsca. I know the new reporters and meteorologist don't know that mother nature will turn left or right.
@SIMPLYD (90722)
• Philippines
3 Oct 16
How i wish they can so before a big quake hits , i am already at a place where it won't affect me .
Luckily , earthquakes in our place are mild ones . 
@arthurchappell (45002)
• Preston, England
1 Oct 16
some may be possible to predict - we know the San Andreas fault will go on a big one at any time but saying when is not yet possible - obviously predictions could help save many lives
@arthurchappell (45002)
• Preston, England
1 Oct 16
@petatonicsca eek, it will hit San Francisco very badly when it goes
@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
1 Oct 16
The USGS just put out a four-day advisory that the chance of a San Andreas fault rupture is higher now through Oct 4. This is because there are earthquake swarms at Salton Sea which connects to the fault.
1 person likes this
@JudyEv (325798)
• Rockingham, Australia
1 Oct 16
I don't really know what to think about it but I do think animals seem to know when something really weird is going to happen.
@JudyEv (325798)
• Rockingham, Australia
1 Oct 16
@petatonicsca I know farm animals often act differently if there is some sort of catastrophe about to happen.
@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
3 Oct 16
@JudyEv And pets do too. I have even read of flocks of wild birds refusing to land when an earthquake is about to strike. In Japan, the tradition is that the catfish turns-- and if you see the fish in your pond (should you have one) thrashing about, you better beware.
1 person likes this
@petatonicsca (7070)
• Japan
1 Oct 16
One of my cats used to warn me about two hours before one hit (this was after 2011 when we had them every day.)
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