Will America Attack Iran?
March 19, 2007 9:41pm CST
I hope every body has come across this hot issue and would have his/her own views. i see it as follows... Though American President has openly said that military option is not "off the table" as is concurred by Tony Blair as well as drumming up of war beats as is deduced by many of american statesmen's and women's statements, and declaring cosiderable loss of its troops in Iraq as a second trigger (which makes it easy for America to make up a case for war) yet military card, albeit not so perilous for America as it is for Iran, is not the best option for America either. had it been used some years back, it would have been more easy, forthcoming and conclusive for America. With saddam's Iraq on west and Taliban's Afghanistan on east and much less developed Iran, America would have found a much easier target. The regional changes that has occured since America turned against Taliban after initially supporting it has step by step moved to the favor of Iran. It has been a common secret that whatever or whoever was used by America turned out not to be so fruitful as it would have been expected by American think tanks and policymakers. American frustration over Iran is not an overnight affair. Very briefly saying, American political defeat in uprising of Iranian people and revolution, American hostage crisis for which all American efforts including the commando Action failed one after the other., America's failure in destroying Iranian system through imosed Iran Iraq war (though they provided chemical and biological weapons and Ronald reagan even said that," America could not afford to allow Iraq to loose the war to Iran")Expulsion of America from Lebanon, Failure to use taliban against Iran by imposing another war on Iran. Economic failures with regards to Central Asian reserves. Failure to overthrow the system from within. Continuous failure to come out of Iraq as victors. Failure in restricting much the Iranian military advances despite continuous and ever growing sanctions. Political failures in the region administered by Iran. These are the few examples of what caused increased tensions and frustration of America against Iran. To analyze the issue we need to see military as well as political, not to mention the economic position of America. Its strengths and weaknesses. The most reliable American Strength is its Aircraft carriers, Which are very hard to hit and are far less vulnerable to attack than the ground targets. Firstly it is hard to locate a carrier in open ocean, then even if located it is still harder to keep track of it (which is needed for a successful strike against carrier, even America doesn't have this capability as such), now even if tracked, it has sophisticated engaging equipment against any attack. Shortly speaking its almost imossible for Iran to effectively strike an American Aircraft Carrier. The last Carrier was probably sunk in 1945 by enemy. On ground, it has surrounded Iran from all sides. America has it's central command in Qatar, military bases and facilities in Saudi Arabia in west, Turkey in northwest and military presence in Iraq in the west, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in the southwest and Afghanistan in the east. This very American presence while being a strength for America is also Iranian deterrence, in the event of defence and counter offence. What i believe is,Iran, being unable to strike effectively against American Aircraft Carriers will test its muscles in Iraq against American Forces who do not have military infrastructure to effectively defend Iranian strike (but Iranians have limits in doing so). other possible targets could be central command in Qatar, as well as American forces in neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and UAE, if they provided bases to America which is quite possible. This will be immediate counter offence. America will surely come out to be a winner in nitial phase but what would follow is not clearly known, because Iranian supreme leader has warned that America could not get away with offence without a counter offence against its interests all over the world. To date, more than 10,000 Iranians have registered themselves to serve as suicide attackers against American interests whenever needed. On the other side Iran has acquired 27 Tor-M1 missiles (anti Aircraft), as well as anti-ship torpedo missiles and cruise missiles, which are less compared to American might but still surve as deterrence. Politically it is yet more difficult for America than militarily. Bush and Blair and some other leaders have already suffered a lot politically because of the war in Iraq. Americans and other world know their manipulation of intelligence data and don't trust them as they trusted before. Democrats are now in majority who will not allow to go for another devastating war against american interests secially when public is against and they still have to win 2008 Presidentail elections. Though as per constitution American President has the right to act first and then take approval from congress in case immediate action is required but still it's a tough nut to crack. Blair is out (going in september and already has called for troops withdrawal as opposed to American plan to enhance the troop level). But having said all that, i am not downplaying the possibility of a war, its there but far less probable than it is normally seen
2 people like this
20 Mar 07
that's the point. America may start the war but it doesn't has the capability, ann infact nobody has the capability to stop it on one's own terms and time of choosing. like what is happening in Iraq would not have been wanted at first place.
23 Mar 07
yeah you are right, war serves no one but very few who seek personal interest or desire. Sunday times reported a couple of weeks ago through a british intelligence source that 5 American generals and admirals are ready to resign in case, America goes for a war.
22 Mar 07
The situation with Iran is quite a scary thing to think about, because any confrontation with them will surely lead to more devastation than the wars in Afganistan and Iraq have proven. It would require a lot of resources to put a fight up with them and a lot of American interests and targets would be destroyed. I hope that a war with Iran will never occur but ya never know, all we can do is wait and see.
22 Mar 07
you are right, war in Iraq, who by the way had lesser resources and power to fight with, has proven to be much costly. it not only drained billions of dollars but also had its impact on the overall American economy. you just think that billions of American taxpayers money was spent on it rather than on other productive issues. had it been spent on development projects, the results would have been in favor of economy. War with Afghanistan though costed less but that too is becoming more and more horrifying every day. so thinking of opening another crisis would not be a wise option in my view. Iran has much greater resources than Iraq and given their system where the people not only follow the leadership but is ready to sacrifice there lives and children for them, thats surely going to creat a nightmare scenario in a mid term, if not in short term.
30 Mar 07
I suggest you checking this link out. It will give you more idea of what are the real plans. http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Project_for_the_New_American_Century This is a think tank who proposed much what we are witnessing today. Please check how many of the people invoiolved into this think tank have key positions in the present US setup.
30 Mar 07
sir thanks for your participation. I wrote a long reply to your message but because of my fault it couldn't be posted and i don't wanna go all way down now. but briefly, i have read the article provided by you. neither do i question its content nor do i doubt American administration or neo con plans against iran. But there are other ground realities too. you must have read what i said and i quote here," it has become a common secret that whoever or whatever was used by America turned out not to be so fruitful as it would have been expected by American think tanks and policymakers". there are many examples to that, some i mentions regarding american frustration over iran, other are vietnam, Afghanistan and now Iraq. Republicans losed the election because of war. any foolish american action will give leverage to china in the region which no neo con will admire. Thanks again for your reply, i do appreciate.
26 Mar 07
Definitely U.S gonna attack yarr...they have already planned to attack .....Iraq, Afghanistan, Taliban, WAS PLANNED ....no war takes place without planning...IRAQ war was already planned way before Afghan war...CNN has already revealed the Truth of this war...and now its Iran's turn to face the war...