Snap Judgments

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It certainly wasn't their biggest win ever at Jacksonville's Alltel Stadium, but those were no small potatoes at stake Sunday for the New England Patriots on the road against the Jaguars. To be taken seriously in the stacked AFC playoff field, Bill Belichick's team needed to beat a quality opponent in the month of December. Not Houston or Detroit in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. But on the road, where they likely will have to spend all but the first week of the NFL's January tournament. The Jaguars have been wildly inconsistent this season -- two losses to Houston, and then a dismantling of the visiting Colts two weeks ago -- but they were 6-1 at home, had allowed opponents just 9.1 points per game, and hadn't given up more than 17 points at home all season. And with rookie running back Maurice Jones-Drew running absolutely wild of late for Jacksonville, slowing the Jags' ground game was a tough assignment for New England. But the Patriots persevered and passed the test, winning a back-and-forth, smash-mouth type of game on the same field they won the Super Bowl on less than 23 months ago. And with the victory came rewards: Another playoff berth clinched, and New England's fifth AFC East title in the past six years. At 11-4 with a Week 17 date at dangerous Tennessee (8-7) still to come, the Patriots have at last announced they will be challenging for AFC supremacy next month. The Chargers and Ravens are still the teams to beat, and look likely to enjoy the first-round bye and divisional-round home game. But with the Colts (11-4) continuing to falter, there's room for yet another Patriots deep playoff run to take shape in the weeks to come. Consider the rest of the NFL warned. • Something tells me neither Tom Coughlin's Giants or Jim Mora's Falcons did much in Week 16 for their embattled coach's job security. Nice effort, guys. For a team with a lot left to play for this season, the Falcons (7-8) at home against the Panthers on Sunday sure didn't act as if they want to keep working into January. Ditto for the Giants (7-8) at home against the Saints. On the hot-seat meter, I'd say the odds are now solidly in favor of both Coughlin and Mora being out of work come Jan. 1 or so. When NFL owners sense a team has given up on their head coach, a change at the top is usually forthcoming. • When the Giants decide to go belly up, nobody in the league does it better. New York scored a touchdown on its first possession against New Orleans, then proceeded to punt on nine of its final 11 meaningful drives (discounting a possession at the end of the first half), producing just three first downs during that entire span. The Giants fumbled and threw an interception on their two non-punt drives, and did not take a snap in Saints territory the entire game. If you're scoring at home, New York lost its final four home games of the year -- against Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans, ruining a 6-2 start. See ya later, Tommy C. • It seems like merely piling on at this point to lament the Colts' inability to stop the run. Ron Dayne of all people shredded them Sunday in Indy's first-ever loss to Houston. But just as ominous for the Colts is their road record. They've lost four consecutive road games -- at Dallas, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, and at Houston -- all in the past six weeks. With the Colts falling into the AFC's No. 3 seed position after the loss to the Texans, having to hit the road by the divisional round seems their likely fate. It's just that for the Colts, who seem to be spiraling downward for a second consecutive December, the road has been hitting back of late. • Could Dayne be turning into the running back version of Jim Plunkett, a former Heisman Trophy winner who doesn't realize much NFL success until he's with his third organization?In his four games this month, Dayne has firmly run himself into Houston's long-term plans. His career-best 29-carry, 153-yard day against the Colts gives him 429 yards and five touchdowns in the past four games, numbers that equate to 1,716 yards and 20 scores on the season if that pace were sustained. • Jones-Drew might be convincing me to cast my Offensive Rookie of the Year vote for him on New Year's Day. The Jags' bowling ball of a running back hung up another 172 yards of total offense -- 131 rushing, 41 receiving -- and two touchdowns this week, giving him 15 total on the season. He has 12 rushing scores, with at least one in seven consecutive games, and his 74-yard touchdown scamper against the shell-shocked Patriots was the second longest run in Jacksonville team history. • And while we're at it, did you see Jones-Drew flat run over New England linebacker Tedy Bruschi, who got dragged along for a ride and then discarded? That had to be embarrassing for No. 54. • With Brian Griese replacing Rex Grossman and leading the Bears to a go-ahead fourth-quarter field goal in Detroit, now what do we make of Chicago's ever-topical quarterback situation? My guess is the move doesn't necessarily mean much, but Bears coach Lovie Smith wanted to ensure that he had Grossman's full attention as the NFC's top-seeded team approaches the playoffs. Mission accomplished, Lovie. • This much we now know, as if we didn't suspect it all along: The NFC's second wild-card team -- and maybe both of the conference's wild cards -- will go lurching into the post-season with no better than an 8-8 record. Maybe nobody really does want that sixth and final NFC playoff berth. Between Atlanta, the Giants, the 49ers and the Vikings, the NFC wild-card race appears to be a case of who can eliminate themselves from postseason contention first. For the second week in a row, the NFC features just five teams with winning records, and a host of mediocrity after that. • Did I really read that right? Carolina quarterback Chris Weinke went 4 of 7 for 32 yards passing, and won? Were there snowy conditions inside the Georgia Dome on Sunday?Somewhere, Dan Pastorini is breathing a sigh of relief. With Weinke snapping his streak of losing 17 consecutive starts, Pastorini's NFL record of 21 losing starts in a row in 1972-74 is still safe. • Whew, that was a close one, wasn't it Lions fans? Your favorite NFL team nearly went and threw away its shot at the No. 1 draft pick, flirting with an upset of Chicago before wisely falling to 2-13 to keep pace with Oakland. • After their 0-5 start, I'm willing to bet there was nobody in America who believed the Tennessee Titans' record would see the happy side of .500 at any point during 2006, let alone be playing for a potential playoff berth in Week 17. But at 8-7, Tennessee has won six in a row, including the last five wins by seven points or less in one of the most improbable runs in recent memory. And to think the Titans would have a seven-game winning streak and a 9-6 record had they not blown a 26-7 second-quarter lead at home against Baltimore in Week 10, losing 27-26. And Tennessee next week plays host to the Patriots, who wrapped up their playoff berth and a division title this week, and thus may wind up resting a slew of starters. I do a weekly radio gig on a Nashville station, and at midseason Titans fans clogged the airwaves wanting coach Jeff Fisher banished from their town. I don't hear quite so much of that any more. • The most amazing statistic I heard on Sunday? That Chad Johnson fumbled for the first time ever on a pass reception, after 460 catches in his career. But it turned out to be a big miscue at snowy Denver, because the Broncos scored on a long pass to Javon Walker on the ensuing play, taking a 14-7 first-half lead in what amounted to a must-win game for both teams. • A snow game in Denver on Christmas Eve. With huge wild-card implications for both teams. Does it get any better than that?• How long does it take for things to turn around in the NFL? The Ravens last year went 6-10. The Steelers went 15-5 and won the Super Bowl. This year, the Ravens are 12-3, and have beaten the Steelers twice by a combined score of 58-7. At 7-8, Pittsburgh is assured of following up its Super win with a non-winning season. • That makes it two consecutive less-than-stellar performances by Saints quarterback Drew Brees, and you have to figure his MVP chances have taken a real hit. Brees still guided New Orleans to a big win on Sunday at the Giants, but his 13 of 32 passing, for 132 yards and a touchdown didn't help him keep pace with LaDainian Tomlinson in my book. • Playing the role of Mathias Kiwanuka in Week 16 was Patriots linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, who had his hands on Jones-Drew early on in that 74-yard touchdown run, but let him go, thinking the play was already over. And speaking of Banta-Cain and Jones-Drew, that's a double dose of over hyphenation. • Well now I'm more convinced than ever that Brett Favre is coming back in 2007. No way he's going to want that clunker Thursday night against the Vikings to be his last game at Lambeau Field. No way. • The Raiders vehemently (and comically) denied the NFL Network report that they expect to fire head coach Art Shell at the end of this season, saying nothing of the sort has been decided yet. Two things bear noting with regards to that topic: One, it's not exactly taking a risk to report that Shell is likely on his way out, given the two-win debacle that 2006 has turned into in Oakland; and secondly, if Raiders owner Al Davis thinks he erred in firing Shell the first time in 1994, he'll only double his mistake by not canning him this time around. • Not to say I'm giving up on Vikings rookie head coach Brad Childress, but I think it's only fair to point out that Mike Tice got dumped in Minnesota because his teams never finish the season as strongly as it started. The Vikings' 4-2 start under Childress gave way to a 2-7 slide, and if anything Minnesota's offense was positively uncompetitive after October. • I still would have liked to seen what might have happened for the Chie