My NBA finals prediction

Philippines
May 25, 2011 2:28am CST
So far, I'm seeing Dallas Mavericks will be squaring off against Miami Heat this coming NBA finals. Dallas Mavericks The Mavs came out strong during the playoffs. Their season standing isn't that good but all that matters is the NBA championship. I guess they realized they had to play better; pass more intelligently, move faster, shoot better, etc.. Their offense is like an a-bomb that had just exploded when the playoffs started. Miami Heat The Heat is one of the highly expected team to win the championship this season. With the transfer of LeBron James and Chris Bosh to the team, the Heat became a more formidable team to enter the NBA finals. Yeah, they had it rough during pre-season and early season games but looks like they've figure out how to use their guns. The Match As I've said, the Mavs' offense is astounding but their defense, as I've seen during their previous games, is lacking. Dirk Nowitski's in-the-paint fade away jumpshot is almost impossible to defend but he should use his height, too, at the defensive end especially if Bosh is the one he's going to be defending. Bosh is one of the strongest Forwards out there and Nowitski should realize that. He should watch how he plays and compare it to how Bosh plays and adjust his style from there. As I'm seeing it, only Jason Kidd sees the floor well at both ends but he doesn't have the height to defend the bigs. Shawn Marion does his part but it's still not enough because the Heat has a strong defense. If you'll notice, their opponents' game scores are low, ranging from 85 to 90+. It's because of their defense and not the opposing team's lack of offense. The Heat will most probably use it to their advantage when they face Dallas, if my prediction comes true, that is. Come to think of it, they're using it to all the games they're playing so it's out of the question. One thing I'm seeing with Heat's gameplay is their low assists. Assists are important in offense because it shows how the players cooperate as a team. I took a closer look at their gameplay and I found out that almost all their plays are isolation plays. It's either LeBron or Dwayne that runs isolation as I've seen it and most of the time they take the ball to the rim. --A quick peek on Isolation. You see guys, the Isolation play goes like this: The player holding the ball is isolated by the rest of his teammates giving him space as if it's a one on one hoop battle. The rest of the players are spread through the different areas of their side of the court because if the player holding the ball takes it to the rim, the defense might break down rendering at least one player open for a shot.-- Now, what happens whenever the Heat uses isolation is either LeBron or Dwayne almost always attacks the rim. I've noticed that there were a lot of open shots they could have taken if the two only opened their eyes a little wider. There were times when James Jones, Mike Miller, or Mario Chalmers were standing wide open behind the 3-point line and they didn't see them. Those are lost opportunities if you ask me. Final Thoughts With all that being said, I predict the Miami Heat will win the NBA championship. They lack the assists, as I've said, but so far what they're doing is working and their offense is doing great. Dallas has offense, too, but their defense is quite loose if compared to Heat's. If the Mavs want to win this season's championship, they should work more on their defense. What do you guys think?
5 responses
4 Jun 11
I remember watching the Bulls-Heat series and think that if the Heat play defense that way, they won't beat the Mavs. They constantly collapsed on D-Rose and made his teammates beat them. The Bulls, as we know, faded and could not hit a three point shot to save their playoff lives. The Mavs are a much, much better shooting team than the Bulls were, and would thrive with those looks. Both teams are in the finals with identical 12-3 records in the playoffs this year. The Heat went 4-1 in all three series they played in, while the Mavs went 4-2, 4-0 and 4-1 against what I feel to be much tougher opponents. I say the Mavs would take it this time, in 6 or 7 games.
• Philippines
4 Jun 11
It might be that the Mav's previous opponents were tougher but it doesn't change the fact that Heat battled with the Bulls, the team that has the higher season record than Mav's previous opponents. I'm still sticking with the Heat this finals, I'm quite sure they'll be taking the crown.
• Philippines
4 Jun 11
It might be that the Mav's previous opponents were tougher but it doesn't change the fact that Heat battled with the Bulls, the team that has the higher season record than Mav's previous opponents. I'm still sticking with the Heat this finals, I'm quite sure they'll be taking the crown.
• Philippines
4 Jun 11
It might be that the Mav's previous opponents were tougher but it doesn't change the fact that Heat battled with the Bulls, the team that has the higher season record than Mav's previous opponents. I'm still sticking with the Heat this finals, I'm quite sure they'll be taking the crown.
@shattered (1728)
• Philippines
26 May 11
I have to be honest that I never expected a Heat-Mavs rematch (2006) Wade and Dirk are still leading the team, but now Dirk has Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion with Tyson Chandler, and Wade, has LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I fully expected a Lakers-Heat finals, like most people, but the Mavs have taken the doubt away, they are a championship caliber team, even with Caron Butler out for the season. I'll take the Heat in 5 or 7, but can;t count the Mavs out they have been keen on proving everyone wrong this post-season.
• Philippines
26 May 11
I wouldn't know about that. Yeah, they've been proving everyone wrong but it's not enough proof that they'd win this season. Miami had risen up as well. If you think about it, Miami had been thought of to fail their record as well. They've had a few consecutive losses during early season matches but they proved them wrong and developed a record worth the third seed.
• Philippines
27 May 11
Yep, Dirk deserves one; he has been in the association for a long time now. I guess James and Wade are more fan-favorite that's why I'm favoring the Heat. Does Kidd already has a championship ring? He has also been playing for a long time now. Both of them, Nowitski and Kidd, deserve at least one. No one would want them ending up like Karl Malone, John Stockton or Anfernee Hardaway, retiring without even winning a championship. That's just sad.
@shattered (1728)
• Philippines
27 May 11
Well Dirk has been unguardable, so far... but Miami has the second best defense in the regular season second only to the Chicago Bulls, but they have improved in the post-season, edging the Bulls in this category. I would really want Dirk to win one though, he deserves at least one. Then again, I'm a Heat fan, so this should be good finals series should the Heat and Mavs have a rematch with their upgraded rosters.
@jambi462 (4576)
• United States
25 May 11
My predictions for the finals are easily that the Dallas Mavericks are going to be facing the Miami Heat. It would be extremely hard for either the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Chicago Bulls to come back from a 3-1 defiicit but I guess we'll only be able to tell in the time to come. My prediction is that the Dallas Mavericks will beat the Miami Heat and go all the way for the NBA championship. Dirk Nowitzki is playing some incredible basketball and he was close to a championship in 2006. I don't think he's going to let the trophy slip through his hands again this year. Some of the biggest reasons I think Dallas will win are that 1)No one on the Miami Heat can guard Dirk Nowitzki a guy that can outscore Lebron James or Dwayne Wade( He could outscore them both if he lights it up and Lebron and D-Wade have bad nights). 2)Dallas has an incredibly deep bench compared to the Miami Heat. When ever the Heat go to their bench they are definitely going to run into problems against the Dallas Mavericks bench. I don't see any of the Heat's bench matching up with guys like Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood, or J.J. Barea. I can pretty much guarantee that the Dallas bench will outscore the Miami bench by at least 20 points each game in the series. 3)The last and final thing I think that will give Dallas the advantage is the matchups in the front court. Dirk guarding Chris Bosh and vice versa is a huge mismatch in my opinion. Dirk has been criticized as being "soft" but in my opinion Chris Bosh is a lot softer then Dirk. I think that Chris Bosh is pretty overrated and I am going to like to see him try to rebound over Dirk and even worse look like a fool trying to guard Dirk Nowitzki. The other mismatch I see is Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood going against Joel Anthony or Udonis Haslem. Both possibilities of match-ups are mismatchs in favor of Dallas in my opinion. Tyson Chandler works really hard as well as Joel Anthony but I'm pretty positive of Chandler having the advantage in athleticism. Brendan Haywood is also a very good defender and I think may have advantage over Haslem who I think will be coming off the bench. The only real things Dallas has to worry about in my opinion is Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. Just like any other team in the league if they can shut down these two players Dallas can easily win the game. By successfully using things like double teams and zone defense which Dallas has been using in these playoffs I think they have a chance of shutting down the Heat. Not to mention that Dwayne Wade and Lebron James are going to be getting guarded by some high caliber defenders like Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, and Deshawn Stevenson. They are also gonna have to try and finish around the rim against two tough centers in Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler. I know that the Miami Heat will be a little different looking on defense as well because in my opinion the Dallas Mavericks are the best offensive team in the league and have so many people to spread the floor( Peja, J Kidd, Jason Terry, Barea, Deshawn Stevenson, Shawn Marion). Overall it's going to be an exciting finals and I can't wait to see the results. Let's not forget some of the comebacks that we have witnessed Dallas come back from and the fact that they swept the former champions the Lakers.
• Philippines
26 May 11
If we're going to talk about match ups, I'd have to say Miami has an advantage on the defensive end. Nowitski is soft. He shouldn't be playing the center spot, quite frankly, and that's what the Mavs' mistake is. Put him against Bosh and their offense is doomed. Although there is a more defensive player than Bosh in Miami roster and that's Joel Anthony. He's not the first player you'd count on to score but he can definitely slam a big hammer down Mavs' offense. Another match up will be LeBron James and Shawn Marion. Both has strength, both has a high I.Q., but LeBron is much much faster than Shawn. Yeah, Shawn can play defense but have you seen how James trailed and blocked a number of layups and dunks. There were even times when it all happened head on, old fashioned face-to-face smack 'em down block coming from James. Kidd might have an advantage over Wade when it comes to experience and court vision, that's all too obvious, but Wade is a better scorer than Kidd. Plus, Wade is stronger than Kidd and he can take it inside like a freight train. Talking about the bench, have you forgotten about James Jones and Mike Miller? How about Mario Chalmers who was the starting point guard when they became champs way back? Terry's shooting is extraordinary beyond the arc but Chalmers can also stroke it from downtown. As for Dallas sweeping the Lakers, that's when LeBron was still in Cleveland and Bosh was still in Toronto. My point is, last year was last year.
@DNMT008 (16)
• China
25 May 11
Offence win the game,defense win the championship.Bulls is one of the best defense teams in the league, and they can't stop the heat's big3, so it's hard to believe the Mavs can do it. And if finally the finals played by Miami vs Dallas, it's quite dramatic to see Dirk Nowitzki and Dwayne Wade meet in the finals again after Heat beat Dallas in 2006.Anyway, this series will be wonderful.
• Philippines
26 May 11
Yep, truly a grudge match but now there are difference makers. The rosters had been changed dramatically so it'll be a different ball game all in all.
@marvz023 (189)
• Philippines
27 May 11
and it's miami vs dallas. offensively, miami has the edge but defense, i'd go for dallas. kidd vs wade wherein kidd has been tremendous defensively against a less than 100% wade. marion will have to take his defense a notch higher against james and vice versa since it will be an upgrade compared to deng/durant for these two. nosh vs dirk, a bit of a questionmark here since bosh is like a tiger lately that waits for its opportunity to come. dirk meanwhile is simply unstoppable. i'd pick dallas for these one and i'll be surprise if miami wins a game or two. but this is just my prediction, and i wont count miami's big three as well.
• Philippines
27 May 11
I don't think Wade is less of a player on D against Kidd. Kidd had been offensively active this playoffs and he's been showing just that. On defense, I highly think Wade is stronger and faster. Kidd is old to match up against Wade to tell you quite frankly. Bosh on Nowitski, this is a match up pretty close to call, although I think Bosh is more defensive than Nowitski; Dirk is just too soft in the paint. Have you noticed how he always stays away from the paint on offense? It might be their play but during basket misses, he just seems a little too hesitant to catch the offensive board. James against Marion, there is no question, James is more dominant on both offense and defense.
@marvz023 (189)
• Philippines
30 May 11
kidd did shut down russell westbrook in the WCF so he can slow down d-wade as well. he cant match his speed but kidd is a PG (you have to be quick when you are a PG) and has the muscle to match d-wade's. i didnt say kidd can stop d-wade, but he can make his life in the finals hard. i've seen kidd's D especially on crunch time and he has been outstanding trying to stop westbrook and even kevin durant. he can be used is same situations against wade and even lebron james. you have a point though since wade's speed and athleticism is superior than kidd but he is an all-star veteran for a reason and he has been to the all-defensive team numerous times. about dirk, you cant average 9 FT's a game by playing in the perimeter or just hoisting a three. he does have a post game and for me, the deadliest offensive player in this era. his fadeaway shot is his bread and butter. about rebound, chandler, haywood and marion (one of the game's best offensive rebounder) are there for a reason. james vs marion, i agree with you 100%. although marion was able to stop durant when they needed it most. he is a scary defender even for lebron james.
4 Jun 11
I believe that Shawn Marion would be switching between LeBron and Wade depending on the matchup and the lineup on the floor. Dirk, as Kevin Durant said, is a bad, bad man. He's a 7 footer with an inside out game and can shoot jump shots in almost any angle. What Miami has going for them is that they have two bonafide superstars that can take over at any point of the game [as everyone can attest to, in these playoffs]. The only time they got limited was during that Game 1 loss to the Bulls. The rest of the playoffs have seen one [or both] dominate and have their way on the offensive end.