To Be or Not to Be? That is the Question Regarding This Storm Sitting in the Gulf of Mexico
By Jeff Moffitt
@moffittjc (128837)
Gainesville, Florida
August 31, 2016 12:37pm CST
Tropical Depression Nine, which over the past week had been referred to as "Invest 99L," continues to baffle meteorologists and forecasters about whether or not it will become a named tropical system.
Day by day over the last 10 days there was discussion that it would become a tropical depression, then it wouldn't. Then it would become a tropical storm, then it wouldn't. It might develop into a hurricane, it might not. So, after 10 days of hearing this, the answer we're getting is "we just don't know."
The official forecast has the storm path coming right over north central Florida where I live and work. But we don't know if it will come ashore as a low pressure system, a strong tropical storm, or a weak hurricane. Regardless, we do know it will bring lots of rain and flooding.
What is particularly frustrating for me is that I am away at a conference for the whole week, so I have been trying to follow the storm details closely, so I can relay information and work assignments to my staff back home. We have a very precise hurricane preparation manual at work, and depending on what type of storm is hitting the area and how powerful the winds are will dictate what level of preparedness we have to implement.
If this storm does finally develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, it will be named Hermine. The storm is currently sitting stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, and seems to be getting better organized. Unfortunately, the longer a storm sits stationary, the more chance it has to develop into a powerful tropical system.
Unless you live in Florida, this may not even be a news event for you! Have any of you been following the storm developments?
11 people like this
11 responses
@akalinus (44366)
• United States
31 Aug 16
They said today that for the first time, they are broadcasting hurricane warnings for a tropical depression. The thing is supposed to make landfall tomorrow. We are getting heavy rains right now. I am getting stuff together in case I have to evacuate.
1 person likes this
@akalinus (44366)
• United States
1 Sep 16
@moffittjc They said it was the first time that every happened. Everything is so strange lately.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
2 Sep 16
@akalinus They also said that this is the first time they have issued surge warnings for coastal areas. A pretty smart idea.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
I found that very interesting that they were issuing hurricane warnings for an unnamed storm. Very unprecedented, but also goes to show just how fast these storms can build and turn into hurricanes.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
Where are you located at? I have been focusing so much on our storm that I haven't paid attention to anything else out there
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@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
2 Sep 16
@Dena91 So it never formed into a tropical storm, did it? Was it just a tropical wave that moved inland in the Carolina region? I hope you didn't get too much rain from that system, because Hurricane Hermine is headed along the eastern coastline over the next 2 days, and is sure to ruin everyone's Labor Day weekend plans.
@Asylum (47893)
• Manchester, England
31 Aug 16
What I find amusing to that meteorology is now considered a science. People study at University to acquire a degree on the subject, followed by intensive on the job training.
They receive data from numerous satellites orbiting the Earth, which is then processed by computers using specifically designed software programs.
However, they still fail to predict the following day's weather correctly.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
31 Aug 16
We joke here that the best job to have in the United States is either as a weather forecaster in Florida, or southern California. In Florida, our forecast every day is: hot, humid and a 50% chance of rain. In southern California, the daily forecast is this: warm, sunny and 0% chance of rain! No need for fancy computers and satellites to make those weather predictions! Hell, not even sure why they have to go to a university to get a degree.
Sure wish I had an easy job like that!
2 people like this
@Asylum (47893)
• Manchester, England
31 Aug 16
@moffittjc Here they just predict rain, but twice a year they are wrong.
1 person likes this
@Asylum (47893)
• Manchester, England
31 Aug 16
@enlightenedpsych2 A fair point because the farmers normally have a far better idea.
1 person likes this
@much2say (57760)
• Los Angeles, California
31 Aug 16
Being on the west coast, I seem to be hearing more about the Hawaii one that is coming their way. Oh but I'm sure living where you do, you have to keep a close eye on those forecasts . . . hurricanes are quite serious! These forecasts must be so frustrating - it would be nice to know what's coming so you can prepare properly, but I know they don't have it down to an exact science quite yet. Here in Southern CA, we would love to hear news of storm as we get no rain anymore . . . literally all they have to say is warm, hot, triple digits - and that's about it.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
I had heard about the storm approaching Hawaii, but haven't seen much coverage of it since in our area they are only broadcasting data about our tropical system (which has now been upgraded to a tropical storm)
1 person likes this
@much2say (57760)
• Los Angeles, California
2 Sep 16
@moffittjc 
I guess I am reading that a hurricane is about to hit the Gulf Coast! Hope all stay safe out there!!!
I guess I am reading that a hurricane is about to hit the Gulf Coast! Hope all stay safe out there!!! 1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
4 Sep 16
@much2say The hurricane made landfall just to the west of where I live, but we got some of the strong outer bands. We had a lot of trees down, and power outages, but no major damage otherwise. The flooding also wasn't as bad as it could have been.
1 person likes this
@nanette64 (20363)
• Fairfield, Texas
1 Sep 16
Even here in Texas Hermine could affect our weather @moffittjc .
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
2 Sep 16
I think we all need to be on our guard now, since we are approaching the height of hurricane season. It's been way too quiet in the tropics so far this year. Something's got to happen soon, unfortunately. I hope nothing heads your way!
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
3 Sep 16
@nanette64 I read somewhere a long time ago that more hurricanes hit Texas and Louisiana than hit Florida or North Carolina. If that's true, that's pretty amazing. But, considering how many storms it seems are always targeting Galveston and South Padre Island, it is totally feasible that Texas gets a lot of hurricanes!
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@nanette64 (20363)
• Fairfield, Texas
2 Sep 16
@moffittjc Ours would be minor compared to yours.
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@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
2 Sep 16
Well I hope she will be safe down here!
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
3 Sep 16
@RubyHawk Glad to hear they are safe! I missed being on this site all day yesterday, as I am on the emergency response team for my city, and I got called in to help with cleanup and debris removal. We had a lot of downed trees and power lines, so it was a busy day yesterday!
1 person likes this
@RubyHawk (99367)
• Atlanta, Georgia
3 Sep 16
@moffittjc Thank you, we heard from them today and they are safe.
1 person likes this
@CinnamonGrl (7086)
• Santa Fe, New Mexico
31 Aug 16
I haven't been following it in particular. I have seen some Floridians post about it.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
31 Aug 16
Hmmm...not sure how I missed their posts about it! I've been keeping my eye on other discussions here on myLot to see if other Floridians were talking about it! But I'm at a conference this week, so my myLotting activity hasn't been as frequent as it normally would be!
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
It's still sitting out in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico right now, but it is not moving northward toward Florida. It is projected to make landfall on Thursday.
1 person likes this
@JamesHxstatic (29410)
• Eugene, Oregon
31 Aug 16
Listening to NPR, they are talking about that storm, the one off the east coast and one that appears to headed for the big island in Hawaii. I heard quite a rundown on all that this morning and will stay tuned. Good luck with the storm(s) this season.
1 person likes this
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
Obviously, I have been following our storm quite closely, and was vaguely aware of the storm in Hawaii, but I had no idea about the storm off the east coast.
@moffittjc (128837)
• Gainesville, Florida
1 Sep 16
It has now started to move, and is now on it's way towards a Florida landfall on Thursday night. Thankfully, the projected path of the storm has moved farther west, so where I live is not longer in the direct path of the storm. We're still going to get a lot of rain from the storm though.
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