The FUTURE price of OIL ?
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
United States
August 2, 2008 11:23am CST
Yes, it is true.
It is completely futile to speculate on the future price of oil. Yet, there are those who do it anyway. Here are 2.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/564cd82a-5ff3-11dd-805e-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=063fb9c2-3000-11da-ba9f-00000e2511c8,print=yes.html
http://fp1.centurytel.net/polydimensional/miscellaneous.htm
I say the first of the above links is written by an incredibly intelligent person but that without any charts or images it is more difficult to understand than the second link. The second link contains only 2 charts or images concerning the price of oil (top 2 of the page) with only a few words. As a picture is supposed to be worth 10,000 words, the 2d link is more useful to me. (It is my website.)
What do you say?
3 people like this
1 response
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
4 Aug 08
Hello Red,
I see that you've been hard at work on your trend interpretation, and graphic representations of those interpretations. The first one looks terrific!
The second is difficult to wrap one's head around because the 'trend bottom' designator is difficult to visually grasp while the green splotched, and the grey undefined areas are presented on par with the area that you really want us to focus on -- the red area.
Also, I have to seek clarification:
Is the chart indicating that the oversold trend began at $84 (or so), and has continued to be oversold straight through to $127 (or so)? If so, I see this as a very valuable bit of information. As such, I would find greater value in the chart if that information 'popped' out at me. Perhaps the 'pop' is as simple as altering the image so that the grey & green were rendered 'semi-transparent'. That way the red would truly become the emphasis, without even needing the elipses. The other suggestion to make that 'trend bottom' data 'pop' is to include (on the left vertical scale), the exact monetary points at which the trend begins and ends. Meaning, instead of the graph presenting only the monetary intervals which you have decided upon, add the begin & end points, in 'red' to match the highlight on the graph. Just a few suggestions that I hope are helpful.
You have explained the top two images, but what about the third? Am I reading it correctly, in that you are comparing the buying trend of oil to the buying trend of gold? Do you have a specific goal in comparing the two?
All in all, the type of graphic that you have chosen to create is visually dynamic. It has the potential to convey broad information perspective very, very quickly. I suspect that tweaking the design to capitalize on how quickly and efficiently you convey that info will mean the difference between just any old graphic, and the type of graphic that builds a positive repution.
Does this make sense?
2 people like this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
4 Aug 08
Wow, where to begin? First the ellipses are not a part of the chart. They are there only for illustrative purposes for those unfamilar with this kind of chart. These show what the chart looks like where there is a high probability of at least a short term UP trend. The same can be done for short term DOWN trends. The longer term trends can also be identified, but it beyond explaining here in this forum. It involves the shapes and patterns of the different groupings of +'s and -'s that form the background figures.
Here's a link with some of what I've written elsewhere about this chart.
http://www.allbusiness.com/banking-finance/financial-markets-investing/10598397-1.html
As to your suggested changes, there is just too much information being conveyed all at once to change much. I've literally played with it for years, to even include layering multiple charts one upon the other which you have to scroll through. This is actually the best I can do other than possible changes in shading and color.
Where there are 'turning points' indicated by this chart, can not be taken to indicate a change of trend for a specific duration. Turning points can be found with a high degree of accuracy. How long the trend changes is really not easily or as accurately determinable as people would like. When a bottom or top is found, how long the trend will last in the opposite direction is anyone's guess. This chart can not tell you when the trend will change, only that it just changed or is changing.
"It has the potential to convey broad information perspective very, very quickly. I suspect that tweaking the design to capitalize on how quickly and efficiently you convey that info will mean the difference between just any old graphic, and the type of graphic that builds a positive repution."
You bet it does. It actually is a 5 dimensional chart. The human mind can not even begin to conceptualize the interactive result of several hundred simutanous trends and their conflicting converse schedules of reinforcement. This chart creates a picture of a process that is beyond the power of possibly any human to imagine visually.
I expect this line of research to eventually lead to a whole new branch of statistics. The new statistics will not be 2 dimensional like a normal curve but will be 3d or higher. I have done research with distributions of frequency distributions that convince me statistics as we know it is very much an infant in the field of mathematics.
I hope this helps you to understand most of your questions. To answer them all specifically, I'd need to have a chart I could point to and explain specific things. Hard to do in a forum. I'm willing to try again. Ask the confusing questions I have not given you info to understand again.
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
5 Aug 08
Only the first 2 charts are relevant to this post. The others are the year long projections for the US DOLLAR (DXY0) and Gold (XGLD). As you notice these last 2 move in opposite directions. That is not a coincidence.


