How LOW could it go? The DJIA's downward path.
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
United States
October 15, 2008 6:47pm CST
Yes, it is true.
There is continuely research going on as to how to predict the stock market. The attached chart is an experimental projection using a mathematical model that utilizes crude oil prices as a leading indicator for the Dow Jones Industrial Averages.
It is the case that different financial indices and commodity prices universally have mathematical relationships to each other. Over time these relationships change. Usually, they change slowly, sometimes in a predictable fashion. By predicting the change in the changing relationship, projections can be made. The attached chart was created in this way. It is a reasonable estimate of where the DJIA might go over the next year. If the actual price goes outside the shaded gray area, the projection is no good or invalid, and must be disregarded.
I say that this projection will not make anyone rich, but it is more than just a "guess", less than a certainity, and a lot of fun.
What do you say?
1 response
@whiteheather39 (24403)
• United States
16 Oct 08
Only thing that stood out for me was that since Bush became president the market has never reached the heights that it achieved during Clinton's administration
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
16 Oct 08
This is typical. Democrats loosen up the economy leaving it to Republicans to tighten things up. Over the years, markets almost always do better during democratic administrations. Big exception? Reagan!
Thanks for responding so I can try to get the chart posted.
