Biden's Chances Dim Further
By Jim Bauer
@porwest (78759)
United States
January 31, 2024 12:19pm CST
According to the latest polls the gap between Trump and Biden in mock generals are widening, with Trump now showing an average lead over Biden across all 50 states 48-42.
Granted, as I always say, polls are hardly a reliable go to in order to draw any conclusions. They get it wrong lots of times.
But when it comes to polls you have to remember one very important detail. They are weighted and generally favor Democrats, meaning Democrats represent a higher percentage in the polling process.
This means that Trump's actual lead may be much bigger and Biden's trail may be much lower.
Of significance as well are the numbers showing in critical swing states, seven to be exact, Trump also has a very strong lead in the polls.
In the case of Wisconsin (49-44), Michigan (47-42), Arizona (47-43), Pennsylvania (48-45), Georgia (49-41), and North Carolina (49-39), these are interesting leads by the GOP frontrunner between 3 and 10 points.
What these polls also suggest is that even though we thought so, the race may not be a necessarily close one. A national gap of 6 points is pretty massive. And we're only in February.
The hot issues are significant to look at as well. The border and the economy, in which the polls all indicate most Americans feel that Trump would handle these issue better than Biden.
On the immigration issue 52% of people polled think Trump will do better on this issue. Those numbers are similar on the economy. And the polls also indicate most Americans said they are doing financially worse under Biden's economic policies.
Still, with all that said, I don't generally rely on the polls. But there are enough reasons to indicate that they may be rather telling. Trump continues to garner support, and his rallies continue to attract thousands of people while Biden is barely campaigning at all.
It's way too early to call anything. But it seems rather clear that at least voters are unhappy with Biden's job performance, and as many have famously said, "Presidents who don't perform their duties don't lose elections. They are fired."
Sure, Biden could make some turnarounds. But how do you turnaround 3 1/2 years of failures in a couple of months?
6 people like this
3 responses
@kaylachan (57893)
• Daytona Beach, Florida
31 Jan
You don't. He did a piss poor job. And, I am sure I've said this before, voting feels like a popularity contest. Trump garnered so much hate, Biden won just to keep trump out of the chair. And, trump won, to keep Hillary out of office. However, Trump actually did a better job then many thought he would. So it'll be interesting to see if he actually wins. He's obviously not going to jail anytime soon.
2 people like this
@porwest (78759)
• United States
31 Jan
Even I was skeptical about Trump at first when he showed up on the scene. Then I started to watch him more closely since, well...that's what informed voters are supposed to do, right? I listened to what he said in his rallies and quickly realized, at least according to what he was saying, he loved America and his policy ideas aligned with my own.
Then, he got elected and (in my view) LITERALLY blew it out of the park and accomplished WAY more than I ever thought any president could, and was amazed at how quickly he was able to get things done. There were MANY times I disagreed with him. Take the tariffs, for example. At first I thought it was a bad idea until I understood what his purpose was to impose them.
Being truthful, there were MANY times I thought he said things too harshly, said things that didn't shed him in a good light. I didn't always like his tweets. But I was able to overlook that knowing a) he was always that way before and so that's just Trump and b) what he was doing was working, so, why should I worry about all the other stuff?
But you are right. We're not voting for presidents anymore. It's like American Idol on the political stage and you just can't vote that way and expect good results, because the POLICY is what matters more than anything.
I think one thing Trump DOES have going for him is the stark contrast between how things are NOW vs. how things WERE when he was president. And even how things were starkly different when Obama was president vs. Trump.
People have a reference point now that they can actually begin to SEE what was actually accomplished when Trump was in office the first time. The guesswork and the implications are taken out of the equation. There's only (now) the reality, and the reality is things were better when Trump was in office, and feeling the pain now highlights for many Americans just how bad a job Biden is actually doing.
1 person likes this
@kaylachan (57893)
• Daytona Beach, Florida
31 Jan
@porwest I couldn't agree more. I know Trump actually did a better job then what he was given credit for. And, the sad reality is, he can only run four more years if he does win. And, he has a lot of damage to undo if he's re-eletected. And, I pray that if he does win again, people's eyes are opened. Sure, he'll have people who hate him, there's no doubt there. But, it's more important what he does and can accomplish.
1 person likes this
@porwest (78759)
• United States
4 Feb
@kaylachan It is important that he can pick a good running mate who aligns well with his values and policy ideas. If he can do that, maybe we get an extension for another 8 years if people want the path forward to continue beyond the one remaining term Trump is allowed to serve.
1 person likes this
@porwest (78759)
• United States
31 Jan
Whether or not he did anything wrong depends on who you talk to. The reality is that the establishment and the Democrat party simply do not want Trump in the race and never wanted him in the White House when he was there, and so they will do anything they think they can to try to push him out one way or the other.
The American people are pretty smart despite what the media thinks, and the one thing they miss, is that if anyone actually thinking about it believed any of this was true...
He'd not be as popular as he is.
The VERY FACT that he is as MASSIVELY popular as he is, is that the American people know what they are seeing. A political witch hunt.
Americans will not elect a criminal. But we WILL elect a persecuted, innocent man.
There is a side to me that believes as well, and I admit it is tin hatty, that the election WAS stolen, and they know Trump will be able to figure out how if he winds up back in the White House, and the entire charade of 2020 gets exposed. And they are damn afraid of that, which is why they want so badly to take him out.
I could be wrong about the latter part. But have we EVER seen anyone gone after like this in our history? No. So, it begs the question. WHY?
