Can you say "De-flation"  | | In a recent video, Robert Prechter says the Dollar will hit a "Major Bottom" and that a deflationary depression is coming.
Social Safety Nets Mask Deflationary Depression
Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International
is looking for a "major economic depression.” I think it’s clear we’re already in one.
Dollar Hit's a "Major Bottom" [Video] http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298957/Dollar
The only reason it’s not more readily visible is because people are living in foreclosed houses, unable or unwilling to pay their mortgage; one in 9 people living in the US is on food stamps; and unemployment insurance has been extended twice. Congress is now debating extending it a third time.
If Congress doesn’t act, 500,000 Will Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by September, 1.5 Million by Year-End.
Although the official unemployment rate is a mere 9.5%, alternative measures show it’s over 16%. Moreover, an unprecedented 4.4 million workers have been unemployed and looking for work for 26 weeks or longer. "Wage freezes, benefit reductions, and mandatory furloughs are hitting a wide gamut of white-collar, blue-collar, and no-collar industries."
In simple terms, more social safety nets are in place now than during the Great Depression.
Video/Story (Full) http://www.minyanville.co... src="http://www.mylot.com/images/emotes/confused.gif" alt="confused"/>Define "DEFLATION:"
In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the annual inflation rate falls below zero percent, resulting in an increase in the real value of money — a negative inflation rate.
The term deflation was used with an alternative meaning by the classical economists, to refer to a decrease in the money supply and credit.
Deflation should not be confused with a temporary fall in prices; instead, it is a sustained fall in prices that occurs when the inflation rate passes down below zero percent. That is, there is a fall in how much the whole economy is willing to buy, and the going price for goods. Because the price of goods is falling, consumers have an incentive to delay purchases and consumption until prices fall further, which in turn reduces overall economic activity - contributing to the the deflationary spiral (and fall in investment!).
An answer to falling aggregate demand is stimulus, either from the central bank, by expanding the money supply, or by the fiscal authority to increase demand, and to borrow at interest rates which are below those available to private entities.
A different view is that deflation increases sales and economic activity by making essentials (food, housing, fuel etc.) which cannot be delayed, more affordable to struggling consumers, thereby reducing severity and duration of recession.
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| | | | | | | | 1. Rollo1 (1596) | 4 months ago | All the unemployed who haven't been able to find work and whose benefits have been extended (but reduced) are going to find jobs even scarcer because those who haven't been trying to find work up until now will now suddenly be swelling the applicants lists everywhere that is hiring.
The declarations that the recession is over are very premature.
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| | 2. dragon54u (9544) | 4 months ago | I don't think they take into account all the workers that have lost their jobs, gone through all their unemployment benefits and just gave up looking for work. Some of us have given up and try to make money on the internet to help make ends meet. Some move in with relatives and they all support each other the best they can.
I've heard many people say--economists, talk shows, etc.--that you can pretty much double any unemployment figure the government puts out.
I've also hear many say this IS a depression but nobody in an official capacity is allowed to use the word. In the 30's the government did nothing and the economy righted itself. The actions the gov't is taking now seems to be making everything worse--it's like balancing a scale but someone keeps changing the weights. And I think it will get much worse. I doubt we recover from this for at least a decade.
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revellanotvanella (1946) | 4 months ago | maybe thats what this 'homeland security' stuff is about (under the guise of FEMA) because once the situation starts becoming real and people realize things were never like media said they were people are not going to be happy. I imagine theres going to be culture clash, riots, looting, I hope not but its just doesn't seem realistic to me to think this situation is going to miraculously fix itself with our federal deficit, we owe China money, we have billions going toward wars, billions toward healthcare (I'm not against healthcare just the blank check their asking for), all these government programs to guarantee loans that people don't have money for, over stimulus creates false security and I just cannot buy it. I'm taking FEMA advice and getting my flashlights, emergency kits etc.
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